- The Australian dollar decreases due to risk aversion due to the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran.
- Chinese retail sales increased in May by 6.4% y / y, compared to market expectations by 5.0% growth.
- The Iranian Revolutionary Guard fired many missiles directed to Israeli military and industrial centers.
The Australian dollar (AUD) expands its losses in relation to the US dollar (USD) on Monday. The Aud/USD pair remains subdued on the second in a row the session due to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The audience contains losses after issuing the Chinese key Economic dataConsidering Australia and China, they are close trade partners.
The retail sales of China increased in May by 6.4% year -on -year, exceeding the expected 5.0% and an augment by 5.1% of April. Meanwhile, industrial production increased by 5.8%, but below 5.9% forecast and 6.1% earlier. In addition, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in China has noticed that the national economy will remain generally stable for the first half (H1) from 2025. However, economic growth in China may fight from the second quarter due to uncertain commercial policy.
Israel and Iran are still attacking each other despite international calls for diplomacy and de -escalation, CNN. Iran launched many waves of ballistic missiles towards Israel. The Iranian revolutionary guard said that their missiles successfully aimed at Israeli military and industrial centers.
According to local officials, 224 people died in Iran and 14 in Israel. According to Iran of the Ministry of Health, at least 1,277 people were injured since Israel began a wave of attacks on Friday.
Iran informed the mediators of Qat and Oman that Tehran “will not negotiate during the attack,” in accordance with the official negotiations. The source stated that “reports that Iran came closer to Oman and Qatar with a request to involve the United States in order to obtain a suspension of weapons with Israel, and the potentially renewal of nuclear negotiations is inaccurate.”
The Australian dollar decreases like appreciating American dollars in connection with growing geopolitical tensions
- The American dollar indicator (DXY), which measures the value of the American dollar compared to the six main currencies, regains losses and trades higher at about 98.10 at the time of writing. The consumer mood of the USA will be a look at later on Friday.
- The University of Michigan (UOM) announced on Friday that the consumer mood indicator increased to 60.5 in June from 52.2 earlier. This reading exceeded the market consensus 53.5.
- The price indicator of the American manufacturer (PPI) increased in May by 0.1% of the month per month, compared to a decrease by 0.2% (changed from -0.5%). This reading was softer than the expected augment by 0.2%. Meanwhile, the basic PPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.1% Mom in May compared to -0.2% earlier (changed from -0.4%), below the consensus 0.3%.
- The American Federal Reserve (FED) is expected to maintain an unchanged policy rate in the range of 4.25% -4.50% in the upcoming decision on Wednesday. Traders now expect a reduction in the rate of 25 base to September.
- Reuters announced on Thursday that President Trump expanded the steel tariffs from June 23 to imported “steel derivative products”, including household appliances, such as dishwasher, washing machine, washing machine, fridge, etc. Tariffs were initially applied to 25% in March, and later they doubled to 50% for most countries. The range of the affected products has been expanded for the second time.
- President Trump published on Wednesday at Truth Social that the trade agreement with China was completed and added that he was subject to the final approval of his and Chinese president XI Jinping. “We get a total of 55% tariffs, China receives 10%. The relationship is perfect! Thank you for paying attention to this matter.”
- China only grants six -month licenses for exporting infrequent lands for American producers and producers, which suggests that China wants to control critical minerals as a lever in future conversations, according to the Wall Street Journal (Gated).
The Australian dollar contains losses below nine days of barrier near 0.6500
The Aud/USD pair trad around 0.6480 on Monday. The party prejudice persists because the Daily Mapar technical analysis indicates that the pair remains in the growing channel. In addition, the 14-day relative strength indicator (RSI) is set slightly above 50 years, which indicates the dominant stubborn perspectives. However, the pair remains below the nine -day interpretation of the movable medium (EMA), which suggests that the low -term price rush is weaker.
Immediate resistance appears on a nine -day EMA 0.6495, and then a seven -month -old 0.6538 level, which was achieved on June 5. The break above this level can support a pair focused at eight months with a height of 0.6687, followed by the upper border of the channel growing about 0.6730.
On the other hand, the AUD/USD pair can test the lower border of the channel growing around 0.6470. The break below the channel would indicate the weakness of the stubborn bias and put pressure down to pair to test the 50-day EMA to 0.6425.
Aud/USD: Daily Chart
Australian dollar price today
The table below shows a percentage change in the Australian dollar (AUD) compared to the stock exchange of the main currencies. The Australian dollar was the weakest in relation to the British pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPy | BOOR | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.06% | 0.16% | -0.09% | 0.11% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.11% | |
| EUR | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.17% | 0.06% | 0.21% | -0.01% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.16% | 0.02% | -0.14% | 0.07% | 0.24% | 0.00% | 0.06% | |
| JPy | 0.09% | 0.17% | 0.14% | 0.21% | -0.06% | -0.23% | -0.21% | |
| BOOR | -0.11% | -0.06% | -0.07% | -0.21% | 0.11% | -0.07% | -0.01% | |
| Aud | -0.16% | -0.21% | -0.24% | 0.06% | -0.11% | -0.23% | -0.16% | |
| NZD | -0.04% | 0.01% | -0.01% | 0.23% | 0.07% | 0.23% | 0.06% | |
| CHF | -0.11% | -0.05% | -0.06% | 0.21% | 0.01% | 0.16% | -0.06% |
The heat map shows percentage changes in the main currencies towards each other. The basic currency is collected from the left, and the quote currency is collected from the upper order. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar on the left column and move along the horizontal line to the American dollar, the percentage shift displayed in the field will represent the Aud (base)/USD (quote).
Australian dollar questions
One of the most vital factors of the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates determined by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a country opulent in resources, another key driver is the price of its greatest export, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trade partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, growth rate and commercial balance. Market sentiments-not meaninglessly from whether investors take more risky assets (risk) or are looking for safe-havens (risk)-there is also a factor and a positive risk for AUD.
Bank Reserve Australia (RBA) affects the Australian dollar (AUD), setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can borrow each other. This affects the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other main central banks support Aud and contrary to relatively low. RBA can also apply quantitative alleviation and tightening to affect credit conditions, with a former negative Aud and the second positive Aud.
China is the largest trading partner in Australia, so the health of the Chinese economy has a enormous impact on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well, it buys more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, raising the demand for Aud and increasing its value. On the contrary, when the Chinese economy does not grow as speedy as expected. Therefore, positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its steam.
The ore of iron is the largest export in Australia, which is $ 118 billion a year according to the details of 2021, and China as the main destination. Therefore, the price of iron ore can be the driving force of the Australian dollar. Basically, if the price of iron ore increases, the audience also increases, as the aggregate demand for currency increases. Otherwise, the price of iron ore will fall. Higher prices of iron ore also cause a greater probability of a positive trade balance for Australia, which is also positive for AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what the country earns on exports compared to what it pays for imports is another factor that can affect the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces a highly sought after export, its currency will gain value only from the surplus of demand created by foreign buyers who want to buy exports compared to what it spends on buying imports. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens Aud, with reverse effect if the trade balance is negative.
