Bitcoin could face further downward pressure after ending June below its 200-week moving average but above its realized price, which crypto analyst PlanB said suggests the market has yet to reach the bottom of the bear market.
Bitcoin fell 20.5% in June, closing the month at $58,526 – its worst monthly performance since June 2022 – below the 200-week moving average of $62,000 but above the realized price of $52,000.
“ALL previous bear market bottoms were below the realized price.” he said PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow pricing model, added in a separate post on Wednesday that Bitcoin may fall up to $52,000.
The price move would mean Bitcoin is down about 60% from its all-time high of $126,000 in October. The decline may be even deeper as before bear markets We have seen Bitcoin’s value decline even further, for example by 83% in 2018 and 76% in 2022.
BTC is undervalued but could still fall
“Right now, the price is significantly lower than the value and may actually drop from here (below the forecast),” PlanB said. “So Bitcoin is undervalued, but it could still go down.”
BTC trades between the 200-week moving average and the realized price. Source: PlanB
Bitcoin’s realized price is the aggregate cost basis of all coins in circulation, calculated by pricing each of them unspent transaction output (UTXO) at the price at the time of the last change in the chain. It represents the average price at which holders acquired their coins and serves as a key onchain indicator for support levels during bear markets.
Related: Bitcoin rebounds from 21-month low, but leverage data signals caution: whether 57,000 dollars was the lowest level?
Andri Fauzan Adziima, head of research at Bitrue Research Institute, told Cointelegraph that the June close above the realized price but below the 200-week moving average “signals that the bear bottom still has an advantage compared to previous cycles.”
“I expect a capitulation at the end of 2026 before the next stage of growth, although this cycle will be shallower due to institutions,” he said.
Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, told Cointelegraph that the current consolidation near $60,000 is “approaching a potential low, with strong historical and technical support likely to form around the $55,000 level if further declines occur.”
Mid-year bottom of the market
ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen, too was speculated this year could be the bottom of the cycle for Bitcoin, given that it is a US midterm election year. This previously coincided with the bear market bottoms in 2018 and 2022.
“The second half of mid-term years tend to mark the accumulation zone/bottom of the market cycle,” he said.
The US midterm session is scheduled for November 3, when all House of Representatives seats and about a third of Senate seats will go up for election.
