Bitcoin (BTC) is heading for its biggest monthly loss since mid-2022, with BTC down around 18.5% in June as the price struggles to hold on to the $60,000 psychological support level.
BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView
Will Bitcoin’s downward momentum continue in July, or is BTC preparing for a recovery?
Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin’s liquidity map shows a major tiny liquidation “magnet zone” near $67,600.
- Historically, BTC has gained an average of 7.6% in July, while mid-year seasonality indicates an even stronger average return of 10.3%.
Bitcoin may reach $75,000 in July
According to the analyst, July may become a “month of growth for Bitcoin.” Flehwho predicted that the price of BTC will rise to $75,000 next month.
The bullish thesis is based on the Binance BTC/USDT Bitcoin liquidation heatmap, which shows a high concentration of tiny liquidation levels above the current price.
On the monthly chart, the strongest perceptible liquidity cluster is located near $67,645, where the chart shows approximately $247.39 million in liquidation leverage and approximately $2.26 billion in cumulative tiny liquidation leverage.
Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap (1 month). Source: CoinGlass
For beginners, such clusters are often called “magnetic zones”. When many leveraged positions are concentrated around the same price area, the market may move toward that zone as liquidations create forced buying or selling pressure.
In this case, significant liquidity is above Bitcoin’s current price near $60,000.
If BTC rebounds and rises towards $67,600, tiny sellers may be forced to close their positions. Since closing tiny positions requires Bitcoin to be repurchased, this could enhance upside pressure and exacerbate the tiny squeeze.
“I think $BTC is currently bottoming out at 60k and the target is to go up 75k before there is a chance to decline,” Fleh said in a post on Saturday.
BTC grows by an average of 7.6% in July
Bitcoin’s historic monthly gains also support Fleh’s positive forecast for July.
BTC saw an average gain of 7.6% in July, making it one of the stronger months after a typically weaker June, which showed an average return of -1.40%, according to CoinGlass data highlighted by the analyst CGT_Trader.
Bitcoin monthly returns tracking July performance since 2013. Source: CoinGlass/CGT_Trader
This trend appeared even during the bear market.
For example, Bitcoin’s price rose 20.96% in July 2018 and 16.8% in July 2022. More recently, BTC gained 2.95% in July 2024 and 8.13% in July 2025, strengthening the case for another green month.
A separate mid-year seasonality chart also shows that Bitcoin recorded an average gain of 10.3% during the month, which is its highest monthly return in such years.
Bitcoin performance by month in US midterm election years. Source: More Crypto Online
For comparison, in June the average loss was 17%, indicating the possibility of a rebound from the average after the sell-off.
Based on Bitcoin’s current price near $60,000, its historical July average return of 7.6% predicts a move towards around $64,500, while a stronger annual average return of 10.3% points to around $66,100.
A repeat of the July 2022 and 2018 Bitcoin bear markets would put BTC in a range of $70,000 to $72,500, while a July 2020-style rally would put Fleh’s $75,000 target within reach.
A fall of BTC below the 200-week SMA could extend the decline
Bitcoin’s continued decline below the 200-week basic moving average (200-day SMA, blue line) near $62,445 increases the risk of further declines in July.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
A similar loss of long-term moving average support preceded deeper weakness during the 2022 bear market, as BTC continued to decline before forming a bottom.
Related: Bitcoin faces fresh risk of capitulation as 50k BTC moved at a loss
The collapse of Bitcoin’s bear flag increases the risk of the price falling to $55,000 in July unless BTC quickly regains the 200-day SMA.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
