Aston Martin (LSE:AML) shares have suffered a bigger blow than James Bond in a Soviet basement. Within five years they fell by as much as 98%!

Could it be FTSE250 Will stocks recover like a famed spy always does? Or is a Hollywood ending now a pipe dream? Here are my thoughts.

Here’s what the experts say

According to my data provider, there are 10 analysts covering the stock. None of them rate it as a Buy, while the overwhelming majority say it is a Hold.

Meanwhile, the average 12-month price target is 46p. That’s 21.1% more than Aston Martin is currently trading at.

On this basis, it can therefore be concluded that an investment of £5,000 today could turn into just over £6,000 by June 2027 (excluding trading commissions and trading spreads). Not a bad result if achieved.

Of course, needless to say, this is far from ideal. There’s a reason why the stock price dropped by 98%.

Why did the Aston Martin crash?

Unfortunately, Aston Martin’s time on the stock exchange has been marked by a repeated cycle of setting ambitious medium-term financial targets and then failing to achieve them.

In 2020, the carmaker announced it was targeting sales of around 10,000 vehicles, revenues of £2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of £500 million by 2024/25.

Then in 2023, the company set a target of achieving revenues of around £2.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA of £800 million in 2027/28, with a margin of 30%.

At the time, CEO Amedeo Felisa said: “We are on track to significantly achieve our 2024/25 financial targets in 2024 and, with continued mighty momentum, we are likely to exceed them in 2025.“

However, last year the company delivered 5,448 units (not 10,000), had revenues of £1.26 billion and adjusted EBITDA of £108 million (not £2 billion and £500 million). Calling it disappointing would be an understatement.

Looking ahead, there is now a chance that the original 2024/25 target will not be met even until 2027/28.

Where are we now?

That’s why I’m cautious about saying Aston Martin has turned the corner, despite the encouraging signs in Q1. And there certainly were – 102 deliveries to Valhalla helped boost gross margin to the mid-30s from 27.9% a year earlier.

Pre-tax loss increased from £79.6m to £65.5m. And with the company on track to deliver 500 Valhalla supercars for the full year, CEO Adrian Hallmark — his third CEO in five years! – he is sure “significant financial improvement“in 2026

Now I’m a huge fan of the Valhalla supercar, which has received rave reviews. However, with production constrained to 999 units and the expectation that more than 500 units will be in the hands of buyers by the end of 2026, will the “sugar hit” to revenues and margins be lasting?

What if the next exclusive, costly model turns out to be a flop? What if ultra-wealthy buyers in the Middle East dominate spending on up-to-date toys due to a questionable geopolitical backdrop?

This then leaves Aston Martin’s balance sheet weighed down by £1.46 billion in net debt. This, of course, increases significant uncertainty and risk of further developments.

If the company’s momentum from the first quarter extends into the second quarter (the results will be known at the end of July), the company’s shares may quickly gain an advantage. But the James Bond car manufacturer is definitely too risky for me and I’m afraid there won’t be a Hollywood ending.

Should you invest £5,000 in Aston Martin Lagonda Global Plc now?

If investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have stock advice, it can pay to listen. After all, Twelfth Magpie’s flagship Share Advisor newsletter, which it has run for almost a decade, provides thousands of paying members with the best share recommendations from across the UK and US markets.

Mark believes there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying right now. Want to see if Aston Martin Lagonda Global Plc made the list?

Ben McPoland has no position in any of the companies mentioned.