DBS Group Research’s Ma Tieying expects South Korea’s June exports to remain very robust, with year-on-year growth of around 50-60% and a trade surplus of more than $30 billion. AI-related semiconductor demand and higher memory prices offset energy imports. The headline and core CPI are forecast to continue to rise, with the Bank of Korea making two rate increases of 25 basis points by the fourth quarter.
Exports strength and CPI growth
“The next most important data on trade and inflation will be in June.”
“Exports are expected to maintain strong growth of 50-60% year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month, based on preliminary data for the first 20 days of June, which showed a 60.4% year-on-year increase.”
“The trade surplus is expected to widen to more than $30 billion, up from $27 billion in the previous month.”
“AI-driven demand and rising memory chip prices continue to support South Korea’s semiconductor exports, helping to offset higher energy import costs.”
“On inflation, the headline CPI is expected to accelerate further to 3.4% year-on-year from 3.1% in the previous month, remaining above the 3% threshold for the second consecutive month.”
(This article was created with the aid of an artificial intelligence tool and has been reviewed by an editor.)
