Analyst warns that Bitcoin price may reach 24 thousand. dollars if the US stock market crashes by 50%.

Technical analyst Jesse Olson says bitcoin (BTC) could fall more than 60% to below $24,000 in 2026 if the stock market suffers a major crash.

Key takeaways:

A US stock market crash exceeding 50% could accelerate the BTC sell-off.
Coinbase’s negative premium and continued ETF outflows point to moderating risk among institutional investors.

Bitcoin’s chart shows a worst-case target of $23,980

In Sunday entryOlson shared a two-week Bitcoin chart showing BTC potentially falling towards $23,980, based on a long-term volume-weighted support line from his proprietary Market Sniper Pro VWAP indicator.

Biweekly BTC/USD price chart. Source: TradingView/Jesse Olson

The yellow line on the chart represents a custom version of the anchored average volume-weighted price (aVWAP), a tool used by traders to track the average volume-weighted price of an asset from a specific starting point.

In Bitcoin’s case, Olson appears to have anchored the line off the bottom of the 2022 bear market, allowing it to move forward as a potential long-term support zone.

Olson offered the $23,980 level as his baseline prediction for Bitcoin in the event of a severe macro sell-off in which the stock market falls by more than 50%. The type of stress Olson warns against is already being flagged by experienced market observers.

For example, GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham called The continuing boom in the artificial intelligence market constitutes a stern speculative bubble. While Michael Burry did it compared the current rally into the final stages of internet mania.

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Economist Gary Shilling did this too warned that a recession in the US is “almost inevitable” by the end of the year and that stock markets are at risk of falling by 20-30%.

During market stresses, BTC often trades like a high-risk asset. A deep sell-off in the stock market could force investors to limit their exposure to cryptocurrencies, turning Olson’s $23,980 level into a key bearish level to watch.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains feeble

Another bearish signal comes from the Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the Bitcoin price difference between Coinbase and Binance.

A positive premium usually indicates stronger institutional demand in the US, while a negative reading suggests weaker buying by professionals or stronger selling on Coinbase.

For Bitcoin, the index has largely remained negative in 2026, showing that institutional buyers are still not stepping in with confidence.

Coinbase Premium Bitcoin Index and Price. Source: CryptoQuant/Darkfost

Spot Bitcoin ETFs show a similar trend. According to them, US funds have recorded a net outflow of $4.68 billion since May SoSoValue data, reflecting weaker demand from professional investors and other ETF buyers.

Net Flows of US Bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue

“These investors are not behaving like retailers,” said Darkfost, a network analyst affiliated with CryptoQuant, in Sunday entryadding:

“They operate based on the logic of constant risk management, they do not want to buy a potential bottom, they are looking for confirmation, results. And it is not there yet.”

In the past, many analysts, including Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn and pseudonymous trader Crypto Kid, have said that in the event of a stock market crash, the price of bitcoin could fall below $30,000.