AUD/USD trades were little changed on Friday as hawkish policy signals from both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) balanced out, keeping the pair within range despite moderate weakness in the US dollar (USD). At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 0.7011 and remains on track for weekly losses.
Earlier this week, both the Fed and RBA left interest rates unchanged but signaled openness to rate increases later this year in the face of persistent inflation as policymakers continue to strive to bring inflation back to their targets.
Meanwhile, the easing of tensions in the Middle East is providing some support for risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian currency. Still, AUD/USD’s upside may remain constrained as investors wait for modern economic data to provide clues on the future path of interest rates in both the United States and Australia.
Next week’s economic calendar includes the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI), labor market data, as well as the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the final gross domestic product (GDP) reading for the first quarter.
Traders will also monitor the preliminary global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) interest rate decision. The Australian dollar is very sensitive to Chinese economic data, given Australia’s close trade ties with China.
Technical analysis:
On the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair maintains a short-term bearish bias and remains below the middle Bollinger Band, which corresponds to the 20-day plain moving average (SMA) near 0.7091. While the pair remains well above the 200-day SMA at 0.6852, the failure to regain the 20-day SMA suggests that sellers will remain in control. The relative strength index (RSI) at 37 remains below the neutral level of 50, indicating continued bearish momentum, while the average directional index (ADX) near 31 indicates that the downtrend is gaining strength.
On the positive side, there is initial resistance at the 20-day SMA/Bollinger midline near 0.7091, with the upper Bollinger Band near 0.7220 providing another hurdle. On the other hand, immediate support is located near the lower Bollinger Band around 0.6963, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.6852. A decisive break below the latter would reinforce the broader bearish outlook.
Today’s US dollar price
The table below shows the current percentage change of the United States Dollar (USD) against the major listed currencies. The US dollar was strongest against the Swiss franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | BOOR | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.17% | -0.22% | -0.08% | 0.25% | 0.00% | 0.23% | 0.28% | |
| EUR | 0.17% | -0.05% | 0.11% | 0.42% | 0.17% | 0.39% | 0.45% | |
| GBP | 0.22% | 0.05% | 0.15% | 0.46% | 0.23% | 0.45% | 0.51% | |
| JPY | 0.08% | -0.11% | -0.15% | 0.31% | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.35% | |
| BOOR | -0.25% | -0.42% | -0.46% | -0.31% | -0.20% | -0.02% | 0.03% | |
| AUD | -0.00% | -0.17% | -0.23% | -0.10% | 0.20% | 0.21% | 0.28% | |
| NZD | -0.23% | -0.39% | -0.45% | -0.30% | 0.02% | -0.21% | 0.04% | |
| CHF | -0.28% | -0.45% | -0.51% | -0.35% | -0.03% | -0.28% | -0.04% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select the US dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
