West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell on Friday, cutting off some of the sturdy gains seen earlier in the week as renewed diplomatic efforts to end the U.S.-Iran war lifted market sentiment. At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $99, down more than 3% on the day and retreating from a seven-week high near $107.35 reached on Thursday.
The latest lower end of the deal comes after reports suggest Iran has presented a novel proposal through Pakistani mediators in response to the latest US amendments, following Washington’s rejection of an earlier Iranian offer that proposed leaving nuclear negotiations to a later stage. Although no details of the novel proposal have been revealed, the development has raised hopes that negotiations will resume.
However, uncertainty remains elevated as US President Donald Trump maintains a tough stance, insisting no agreement will be reached without addressing nuclear issues and vowing to continue a naval blockade of Iranian ports. CNN, citing an Iranian source, said talks could resume in Tehran if the United States lifts the blockade and Iran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz.
Looking ahead, traders will continue to monitor developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict, particularly any progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Until then, any significant decline in the WTI price may remain narrow as ongoing supply disruptions result in a geopolitical risk premium being baked into oil prices.
Technical analysis:
On the daily chart, WTI US Oil maintains a constructive bullish bias as the price remains well above the 21-day, 50-day and 100-day plain moving averages (SMAs), which are forming a positive configuration and strengthening the underlying structure of the uptrend. The relative strength index around 56 has declined from the previously overbought area, indicating that growth momentum is slowing but remains positive rather than exhausted.
The downside is that initial support is at the 21-day SMA near $94, where a pullback could find buyers in the first test. A deeper correction would expose the 50-day SMA at $88 ahead of the more distant 100-day SMA at $74, indicating a broader bottom in the trend. With the average true range (14) at around $6.57, volatility remains elevated but contained, suggesting that any decline towards these supports is likely to occur within a still bullish medium-term structure.
(The technical analysis for this story was written with the lend a hand of an AI tool.)
Frequently asked questions about WTI crude oil
WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three main types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low weight and low sulfur content. It is considered a high-quality oil that can be easily refined. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing Junction, considered the “Crossroads of the World.” It is a reference point for the crude oil market, and the WTI price is often quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are key factors influencing the price of WTI crude oil. Therefore, global growth may drive increased demand and, conversely, delicate global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Another key factor shaping prices are the decisions of OPEC, the group of major oil-producing countries. The value of the US dollar affects the price of WTI crude oil because oil is mainly sold in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.
Weekly crude oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) influence the price of WTI crude oil. Inventory changes reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate increased demand, which will result in an augment in the price of oil. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, which causes prices to fall. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA report the next day. Their results are usually similar and are within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIA data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 oil-producing countries that jointly decide on production quotas for member countries at meetings held twice a year. Their decisions often influence the prices of WTI crude oil. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, which will push up oil prices. OPEC increasing production has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
