Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures rose above 49,800 in overnight and pre-market trading, up nearly 1,500 points from Thursday morning lows of around 48,500 and heading toward the 50,000 mark for the first time ever. S&P 500 futures held well above 7,200 after the index closed yesterday box office to a up-to-date record, hitting its highest monthly performance since 2020. Nasdaq Composite futures pointed to a continuation of Thursday’s tech-fueled gains, with the Dow itself posting its best month since November 2024. The risky tone comes amid hopes that Iran’s latest diplomatic offer could end the Strait of Hormuz standoff, even as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent escalates rhetoric and President Donald Trump opens a up-to-date tariff front against Europe.
Iran responds through Pakistan, to which Bessent increases the pressure
Iran delivered the text of a revised negotiation proposal to Pakistani mediators on Thursday evening, the official IRNA news agency reported, marking the first concrete diplomatic move in weeks. Pakistani officials have privately suggested optimism that an agreement is closer than ever since the April 8 ceasefire, with the Iranian offer reportedly addressing nuclear issues that Trump had previously dismissed as insufficient. WTI crude oil futures fell 3% to above $101 a barrel, with Brent falling 2% to above $108 after Brent briefly hit $126 a barrel on Thursday on concerns that talks had collapsed. The diplomatic thaw ties in with Bessent’s ill-fated appearance this week on Fox Business in which he called Iran the “snake head of global terrorism,” boasted that the Treasury Department was “rushing to the finish line” of Operation Economic Fury and promised to track down Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps pension funds and villas in the south of France. Friday’s expiration of the 60-day war powers clock adds another level of urgency.
Apple is increasing its services strength as iPhone revenues are lacking
Apple ( AAPL ) rose more than 3% in pre-market trading after the consumer technology giant reported a robust fiscal second quarter on both earnings and revenue, with revenue forecasts for the current quarter topping Wall Street estimates. The robust outlook was overshadowed by iPhone revenues, which came in below estimates for the second time in three quarters, suggesting investors are willing to put hardware weaknesses behind them as long as services and future prospects continue to be delivered. The move helps solidify sentiment in large-cap technology stocks ahead of Friday’s trading session and supports the Nasdaq Composite futures auction, which achieved a third record close.
Trump opens a up-to-date tariff front on cars in the European Union
Trump wrote on Truth Social that he would raise tariffs on European cars and trucks to 25% next week, accusing the European Union of failing to honor the agreed trade deal, while noting that no tariffs would apply to vehicles made in U.S. factories. Following this news, Stellantis (STLA) fell over 2% and Ferrari (RACE) fell almost 1.5%. Despite the threat, stock futures held on to most of their one-day gains, suggesting investors are viewing the move as a negotiating opening rather than a fait accompli. David Krakauer, vice president of portfolio management at Mercer Advisors, told CNBC that he remains strategically bullish on stocks despite the ongoing conflict, although he cautioned that “there could always be new news or deterioration in sentiment, and we could see a slight pullback in equities after a strong rally.”
ISM Manufacturing data remains stagnant
April’s Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ (ISM) Index was 52.7, slightly off the consensus reading of 53 and in line with the earlier reading. This is where the detail comes in: the employment index fell to 46.4 from 48.7, well below the consensus of 49 and fell again, while the price paid index rose to 84.6 from 78.3 against a forecast of 80. New orders rose to 54.1, but the broader reading is clearly stagflationary, with inflation pressures in the industrial sector accelerating, leading to a softening labor market. The print creates a tense backdrop for next week’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, where the consensus already predicts a keen slowdown to 73,000. of 178,000, further complicating the path of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Dow Jones 5-minute chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock indexes in the world, consists of the 30 stocks most frequently traded in the United States. The index is price-weighted, not capitalization-weighted. It is calculated by summing the prices of the company’s shares and dividing them by the coefficient, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years, it was criticized for not being representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, as opposed to broader indexes such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors influence the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The most vital are the total results of the companies included in the group, disclosed in quarterly reports on the companies’ results. Macroeconomic data from the United States and around the world also matters because it influences investor sentiment. The level of interest rates set by the Federal Reserve (Fed) also affects the DJIA because it influences the cost of borrowing, on which many corporations depend heavily. Therefore, inflation may be a major factor, along with other indicators, that influence Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method of identifying the main trend in the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only track trends where both are heading in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criterion. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow Theory assumes three phases of a trend: accumulation, when clever money starts buying or selling; public participation when wider society is involved; and distribution when the clever money comes out.
There are many ways to trade the DJIA. One is the apply of ETFs, which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security rather than buying shares of all 30 companies that comprise it. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts allow investors to speculate on the future value of the index, and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds allow investors to purchase a portion of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks, thereby providing exposure to the entire index.
