Brazilian authorities have decided to close 27 prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket.
The decision announced on Friday follows the order of the Minister of Finance and the implementation by the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), According to to the state news service Agência Brasil. Authorities argued that such services fall outside Brazil’s current legal framework and are therefore operating illegally.
“We are monitoring the evolution of this sector in Brazil, which experienced a period of anarchy between 2018 and 2022 due to a lack of rules and supervision,” Finance Ministry Executive Secretary Dario Durigan reportedly said during a press conference at the Palácio do Planalto.
The hearing follows Resolution 5.298 released by the Brazilian National Monetary Council (CMN), which comes into force in early May and sharply limits the offer of forecast market platforms. The novel rules prohibit contracts related to sports, politics, entertainment or social events because authorities consider them closer to gambling than financial investments.
Only contracts linked to economic indicators such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates or commodity prices, which will be subject to financial market supervision, will remain permitted.
Related: Kalshi bans three American politicians for betting on their own election races
Brazil considers forecasting platforms a debt risk
Durigan argued that prediction markets could deepen household debt and expose users to financial harm. “As we work to reduce debt levels among families, small businesses and students, we must also prevent new forms of harmful debt,” he said.
Blocked platforms include a mix of international and Brazilian services, with major names including Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Robinhood (via its forecasting feature) and Fanatics Markets.
Forbidden forecast markets in Brazil. Source: Agência Brasil
Other affected platforms include ProphetX, Hedgehog Markets, Novig, Polyswipe, PRED Exchange and Stride, as well as several Brazil-focused services such as Palpita, Cravei, Previsao and MercadoPred.
Related: The battle in the forecast market is getting closer to the Supreme Court
More countries are banning prediction markets
An increasing number of jurisdictions have moved to ban prediction markets, often incorporating them into gambling or financial regulations. Several European countries, including France, Belgium and the Netherlands, have blocked or penalized platforms operating without authorization.
In the United States, the situation is more fragmented and there is an ongoing tug-of-war between federal regulators and individual states over prediction markets.
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