XRP is trading near the top of its monthly consolidation band, with the price holding between around $1.35 and $1.45. As April comes to an end – with just six days left until the month closes – will the price of XRP rise before the deadline, or will it fall and cause a faster move downwards?
Monthly breakthrough or failure?
In a fresh technical update shared on social media, analyst Bull Winkle claims that the next major confirmation of the XRP price will be its performance on a monthly time frame. According to According to Winkle, bulls need a monthly close above $1.90.
He characterizes this level as more than just a random area of resistance, describing it as a signal of a “hold” demand zone, as well as a reflection of the 2021 resistance level that is currently acting as support.
Winkle argues that if the XRP price manages to clear $1.90 at the monthly close, it will set the stage for retests higher on the chart, opening the door to re-visits of $2.90 in particular.
This bullish scenario contains significant recovery math. If the price of XRP rises towards $1.90 before the April close from its current trading level of $1.43, it would represent about a 32% recovery. Additionally, a potential upside of 102% to the $2.90 area.
Winkle, on the other hand, presents what could be considered a clear divide for the bears. He says the most definitive bearish signal would be a monthly close below $1.27.
He believes this would open the door to a faster move towards $1, with the potential for an Elliott Wave C-style correction that could push the XRP price into a wider range of $0.60 to $0.75. This bearish estimates would be severe: it could mean a decline of around 58% compared to the current trading zone.
What does the XRP price need next?
While these price levels are the main focus, Winkle also highlighted the context of the momentum using the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator.
He notes that at the age of 47 monthly RSI does not yet show divergence in either direction. For him, this means that the market has not reached the point where the next move is fully “high confidence” in the monthly setup.
Instead, the RSI needs to do something more decisive – either rebound well above 55 to confirm the bullish phase, or fall below 40 with a trajectory towards the 30 area, which it describes as a capitulation-type bottom.
This focuses attention on the immediate battlefield. Winkle’s summary of the current price of XRP is plain: it will likely be decided between $1.27 and $1.43.
In addition to the levels on the charts and RSI, Winkle pointed to a separate signal that, in his opinion, already strengthens the case for a potential upward trend – it is a supply-side signal, not a purely technical one.
In another posthighlighted that “seven billion XRP just disappeared from exchanges,” claiming that this outflow from the exchange matters because once an altcoin is on exchanges, it represents a liquid supply on the seller side that can be sold at any time.
Once that supply departs – whether into chilly wallets, institutional deposits, or long-term holding structures – he argues that the immediate downward pressure on the price of XRP may subside.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
