Seasoned trader Peter Brandt sketches a highly contingent long-term path for Bitcoin that points to a potential top in the $300,000 to $500,000 range in slow 2029, even as he says the market still hasn’t triggered the action that typically spells a enduring bottom.
In a post on X, Brandt wrote: “If Bitcoin continues with the most unusual cyclical patterns of any market over the last 15 years, the investment low is scheduled for September/October 2026. This low may or may not break the February 2026 low. The next high (if the pattern continues) will be between $300K and $500K in September/October 2029.”
As such, Brandt has set himself one condition: Bitcoin continues to respect the cyclical behavior that he says has defined the asset for the last decade and a half or so. This makes short-term setup a lot of work. Before any scenario involving completion of the investment in 2029 emerges, Brandt signals that the current structure still looks incomplete.
Why Brandt Hasn’t Hit Bitcoin Bottom Yet
This skepticism became more apparent in his reaction to the chart published by JDK Analysis. Brandt’s response was blunt: “That doesn’t look like rock bottom.”
The JDK chart shows that the recent advance is “short reaccumulation” in nature, but only in a probabilistic sense. The analyst wrote: “Unless the bulls show clear strength and continuation, the current low does not qualify as a strong bottom. This is a purely probabilistic view!”
This setup highlighted repeated tests of local highs, fading volume as the price rose, and a invalidation level above around 80.5K. dollars, while suggesting that a continuation of declines will remain a more likely path if buyers fail to force a tidy breakout.
Brandt also singled out renowned chartist Aksel Kibar, calling him “the greatest pure classical chart analyst alive today.” Kibar’s market readings weren’t about predictions, but rather about process, but the message was similar: technical designs are fleeting until price confirms them.
“Sometimes I get criticism from followers who have a position and want to receive updates confirming that position on border ‘adjustment,'” Kibar wrote. “Well, as the market offers new information, we have to adapt. We cannot be dogmatic in our analysis. What looks like a wedge may become a canal. What looks like a bearish continuation could break the channel boundary, requiring action.”
This comment was attached to a BTC chart showing exactly this type of structure morphing. What previously looked like a rising wedge was interpreted as a more clearly defined channel, with some rejections at the upper boundary.
The chart also shows that Bitcoin continues to trade below the rising resistance line and below its 365-day average near $87,000, with a acute drop in slow February towards $60,000 followed by a rebound to the upper $70,000 area. Nearby levels around $76,500, $72,000 and low $80,000 proved crucial for the current battle.
At the time of publication, the price of BTC was $78,196.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
