XRP has been consolidating since early February, building a base that has tested the patience of bulls who have been waiting for a decisive move to higher levels. The market has reached a pivotal moment – ​​and CryptoQuant’s report points to a structural breakdown in data that is changing the way we should interpret the current consolidation.

The report reveals a discrepancy that cuts through the surface noise. The spot market and XRP futures are currently telling conflicting stories. Spot purchasing continues to strengthen on centralized exchanges – the CVD All CEX Estimated Spot Index rose from $1.08 billion on April 2 to $1.39 billion by April 24, representing a $310 million escalate in actual underlying demand in three weeks. Actual coins change hands and buyers win the order flow.

The futures market on Binance is heading in the opposite direction. Throughout this period, perpetual investors remained in a bearish position. Maintaining a net low position that creates the appearance of a market lacking conviction.

The analysis shows that the appearance is misleading. The weakness in futures does not reflect a lack of real demand – it reflects a reset in derivatives, an accounting of the leveraged long surplus that has accumulated during previous rallies. Below this reset, spot buyers have been quietly absorbing supply throughout.

The discrepancy is a signal. Which side turns out to be true is the question that the next directional move will answer.

The futures market is not bearish. It is being cleaned.

The scale of the futures divergence gives the current setup its structural definition. While Spot CVD surged $310 million into the positive direction, Binance Perpetual CVD moved in the opposite direction with almost identical strength – falling from -$65 million on March 19 to approximately -$392 million by April 24, deepening net selling pressure by approximately $327 million. Two forces of almost equal magnitude pull in opposite directions simultaneously.

Eternal data requires careful interpretation. Net selling of futures on this scale could mean one of two things: genuine bearishness on the part of informed participants, or the mechanical removal of excess leverage from a market that has accumulated too many crowded long positions. Liquidation figures since April 18 make it clear what is happening. Long liquidations have dominated XRP’s derivatives activity – forced exits from overleveraged positions rather than deliberate short-side bets against the asset.

This distinction changes everything. Each long liquidation removes a frail position from the market and replaces it with a more stable pricing structure. The recent low positioning that occurred helped to normalize funding rates towards neutral, which is exactly what a fit reset of derivatives looks like before the market tries to move higher.

What the CryptoQuant report describes is not a market under constant bear attack. This is a market that carries out internal cleaning, which usually precedes the next directional stage. Buyers in the spot market absorb supply from one side. Derivatives flush excess leverage from the other side. Once both processes are complete, the remaining structure is usually much more hard-wearing than what existed before the reset began.

XRP maintains range support as the market compresses towards a decision point

XRP continues to consolidate around the $1.40 level, with price action reflecting a prolonged balance following February’s pointed collapse. The chart shows a clear transition from a trend to a range-bound structure, with XRP holding for several weeks between support at around $1.30 and resistance at $1.50. This compression phase suggests that both buyers and sellers are absorbing liquidity without establishing directional control.

The recent rebound from the $1.30-$1.35 zone is significant from a technical perspective. This area has behaved as a region of constant demand, with many tests performing despite greater market volatility. The formation of slightly higher lows since mid-March indicates early accumulation, although it is not yet mighty enough to break the broader downtrend.

Overhead resistance remains well defined. Both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are trending down and converging near the $1.50-$1.60 area, creating a energetic ceiling that has rejected recent upside attempts. Until XRP regains this zone, the structure remains neutral to bearish on the higher time frames.

Volume has declined during consolidation, which reinforces our belief that the market is waiting for a catalyst. A break above $1.50 would likely trigger an expansion towards $1.70. Failure to maintain the $1.30 level, however, would expose XRP to a deeper pullback towards the $1.10 region.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com