Anthony Scaramucci said that a significant recovery in Bitcoin may not occur until October or November, arguing that the current declines are still part of the asset’s historic four-year cycle despite a more favorable regulatory environment in Washington.

Speech on Thinking Crypto podcast from the political summit in Solana, the founder of SkyBridge Capital described the market weakness as a cyclical bear market, not a structural breakdown. He said investors expected stronger policy-driven growth following the change in U.S. administration, but whales and long-term holders continued to sell off in response to ETF-driven demand.

“I’m old-fashioned. I was in the category where it’s a cyclical bear market, traditional for Bitcoin’s four-year cycle,” Scaramucci said. “You’ve just passed the halfway point of the halving, so you’re well on your way to the second half of the situation. The real recovery usually only happens in the first quarter of next year.”

Scaramucci added that Bitcoin’s timeline may have been slightly accelerated by macro factors, including President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements and geopolitical conflict. Still, he said Bitcoin remained “pretty sticky” during the war period mentioned in the interview.

“The recovery in the Bitcoin market will probably not be visible until the first month of the last quarter,” he said, pointing to “October, possibly November” as a more realistic window.

Why there was not enough demand for Bitcoin ETF

The comments address a major frustration in the cryptocurrency market: why prices have not responded more strongly to pro-crypto administrations, access to institutional ETFs, and improved legislative dynamics.

According to Scaramucci, the answer lies partly in supply. ETF activity has attracted novel buyers to Bitcoin, including older investors using classic brokerage channels, but that demand has been met with weighty distribution from whales and early holders.

“You still see a lot of Bitcoin buying. A lot of baby boomers are buying Bitcoin, but it’s just not enough,” he said. “You have whales that sell in – OGs in this industry believe in the four-year cycle. So they are fulfilling the prophecy of the four-year cycle by operating on the four-year cycle and selling.”

He said the whales were “pumping in a lot of coins worth around $100,000,” which he believes contributed to Bitcoin’s value falling to the high $60,000s.

Scaramucci also linked the next phase of institutional adoption of Bitcoin to US market structure legislation, particularly the Clarity Act. He argued that the view that Bitcoin is “worthless” is now “completely unacceptable,” but said banks were unlikely to take aggressive action without clearer rules.

“If we fail to pass the Clarity Act, we will not get the banks to truly open,” he said.
He cited experimental custody programs at Bank of New York and SoFi, arguing that true adoption requires major money center banks to offer deposit, yield and lending in exchange for Bitcoin on more competitive terms. Until then, he said, investors won’t see “real full adoption.”

Scaramucci also criticized the political and lobbying dynamics surrounding stablecoin profitability and cryptocurrency regulations. He said banks were retreating because of their established market position, while warning that maintaining a perfect account could delay progress.

“I’m a little more practical. I would probably try to do something and not make a perfect agreement the enemy of progress,” he said. “The best example I can give you is the Bitcoin ETF. Gary Gensler hates us. He didn’t want this to happen. He lost the lawsuit, so he was forced to make it happen.”

The debate over Bitcoin reserves continues to become politicized

When asked whether the U.S. government should hold Bitcoin in strategic reserves, Scaramucci replied yes, but only if the issue could move beyond partisan framing.

“It is very difficult to keep Bitcoin in the strategic reserve if it is a partisan issue,” he said. “If we can make this a post-partisan transformational analysis of what is good and what is bad for the country, what is good and what is bad for the American taxpayer, the answer is yes.”

He said he would not aggressively push the issue before a broader consensus is formed, instead favoring an approach in which Bitcoin held by the government through legal action is kept rather than sold. He also said he is not sure whether the US government has completed an audit of its Bitcoin holdings.

At the time of publication, the price of BTC was $77,844.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com