Forget XRP predictions: the ‘delusional’ crowd may have the last laugh

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Back in 2016 and 2017, when XRP was worth less than a penny, Ripple’s then-chief technology officer David Schwartz laid out a rugged roadmap for what the token could achieve if all went well.

Adjusting Bitcoin’s market share, he said, could push the price to about $2. Capturing some of the global payments could justify $20. And if adoption increases further, $120 wouldn’t be out of the question. At the time, even reaching $1 seemed far-fetched. XRP it has since crossed that threshold several times.

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Validator supports believers

This story is now being used by XRP supporters to defend price targets, which critics call absurd. XRP validator Ledger, who goes by the name Vet, posted on social media this week that claims people were routinely ridiculing for their bold price predictions are likely to come to airy.

“Being a dreamer is simply too powerful,” Vet wrote, adding that those labeled delusional he would win in the end.

The post was met with widespread support from the XRP community. One commentator, known online as the X Finance Bull, said that forceful belief carries people forward regardless of the numbers.

Another user argued that there is a very fine line between delusions and early action, and that who is right is ultimately determined by patience and timing.

$1,000 worth of XRP would require a market capitalization larger than the US economy

The goals that float are not modest. Reports indicate that XRP holders are forecasting prices of $100 to $1,000 and more, even though the token remains around $1.30 after nearly nine months of falling prices.

XRPUSD is currently trading at $1.34. Chart: TradingView

In a recent podcast, two commentators argued that $1,000 for XRP could be reached within four to five years. What did their arguments indicate? Bitcoins track record of exceeding expectations and the role that narrative and mass adoption play in cryptocurrency pricing.

Critics, however, were quick to point out the math. A $1,000 price for XRP would push the asset’s total market capitalization to between $50 and $100 trillion – an amount that dwarfs the entire U.S. stock market. XRP bulls typically counter that market cap is not a reliable ceiling for crypto assets.

The dreamer’s argument is historically grounded

What makes the current debate harder to dismiss entirely is how often cryptoskeptics are proven wrong. Community members recently posted Schwartz’s 2016 comments on Reddit to show how dramatically market expectations can change. What seemed mathematically impossible happened in several cases anyway.

Whether $1,000 worth of XRP falls into the same category remains an open question – a question that will ultimately be decided by the market itself.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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