Advances in quantum computing may ultimately pose a threat to Bitcoin’s cryptographic security, but according to a up-to-date research report from Bernstein, the risks are still manageable and unlikely to cause existential disruption.
In the report, Bernstein’s team – Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, Sanskar Chindalia and Harsh Misra – described quantum computing as a “manageable modernization cycle” rather than an “existential risk.”
Recent breakthroughs, including research by Google showing a significant reduction in the resources required to break up-to-date encryption, have accelerated the timeline of potential threats. However, building quantum computers powerful enough to threaten Bitcoin (BTC) will take many years due to major technical hurdles and high costs.
Bernstein estimates that the crypto industry has about three to five years to prepare for post-quantum security improvements, which will give time to move toward quantum-resistant cryptographic standards.
The transition will likely be handled by the Bitcoin open source developer community and core contributors, who are responsible for proposing and implementing protocol updates by consensus.
Related: Scientists say quantum computers could theoretically be ready by 2030
Quantifying Bitcoin’s Quantum Risk
Quantum computing differs from classical computing in that it uses “qubits,” which can encode multiple states at once. This enables algorithms that could, in principle, break commonly used encryption methods, including those used to secure Bitcoin wallets.
Still, the risk is not uniform across the network.
According to Bernstein, the vulnerabilities are mainly concentrated in older Bitcoin wallets and addresses that reuse public keys, which are more vulnerable to potential attacks. Newer wallet formats and best practices, such as avoiding address reuse, significantly reduce this risk.
Bitcoin’s mining process, which relies on SHA-256 hashing, is not considered significantly vulnerable to quantum attacks or AI quantum computing breakthroughs.
Bernstein believes that certain types of Bitcoin addresses – in particular pay-to-public-key (P2PK), pay-to-multisig (P2MS) and pay-to-Taproot (P2TR) – are among the most vulnerable to quantum risk.
The risk is particularly pronounced for older “legacy” portfolios. Approximately 1.7 million Bitcoins, including an estimated 1.1 million BTC attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto, are stored in early P2PK addresses where public keys are permanently perceptible.
Related: Is $450 Billion in Bitcoin Quantum Vulnerable? Analysts are wondering
