Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin derivatives are showing tender conviction with a 2% futures base and an elevated put premium signaling caution.
- Institutional buying via $86 million in ETF proceeds and Continuous Accumulation Strategy (MSTR US) counters market concerns.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $67,000 after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement with Iran tardy Sunday. Despite this short-term optimism, derivatives indicators show that cryptocurrency investors remain highly skeptical, raising concerns that this sudden surge could be a powerful bull trap.
Brent crude oil (left) vs Nasdaq 100 index (right). Source: TradingView
On Monday, Brent crude oil fell to its lowest level in 100 days and the Nasdaq index gained 3%. However, Bitcoin traders remained cautious due to the lack of a deadline and clear operational details for shipping companies after peace agreement with Iranalthough a provisional agreement is expected to be reached next Friday.
2-month Bitcoin futures base rate. Source: Lightness
The one-year premium (base rate) of Bitcoin futures was 2% on Monday, signaling a lack of demand for leveraged bullish positions. This indicator has not crossed the neutral 4% threshold for over 3 months, which reflects Bitcoin’s performance of -24% year-to-date. Still, Bitcoin’s 4% daily enhance in value surprised compact sellers, triggering $210 million in liquidation.
Bitcoin’s price is supported by spot ETF inflows and strategic acquisitions
Part of the bullish sentiment stemmed from Friday’s net inflow of $86 million into U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot funds. While positive, this inflow was not enough to reverse the massive net outflows of $730 million seen since June 5. ETF activity is widely tracked as a proxy for institutional demand, bulls are likely waiting for stronger confirmation.
Bitcoin 30-day options are skewed (put-call). source: Laevitas
Bulls’ tender confidence was also evident in the options market, where investors actively avoided downside risk protection. Bitcoin put (put) options are trading at a 16% premium to call (call) instruments, which is a clear warning sign of downside fear. This weakness in cryptocurrencies became even more apparent as the Nasdaq 100 Index surged to just 1% below its all-time high.
Trader skepticism is also fueled by conflicting claims about future transport fees in Iran, especially since the current agreement is only valid for two months. According to to Yahoo Finance. Meanwhile, equity investors are finding plenty of reasons for optimism elsewhere, with the artificial intelligence sector getting a huge boost from SpaceX’s (SPCX US) record-breaking IPO.
Public Companies Bitcoin, BTC Treasure Ranking. Source: CoinGecko
SpaceX, the aerospace and artificial intelligence powerhouse founded by Elon Musk, recently secured $75 billion in the largest public offering in history. SPCX shares surged 14% on Monday, pushing the company’s valuation to a whopping $2.1 trillion. The multi-billionaire is a vocal supporter of cryptocurrencies, and the latest SEC filings reveal that SpaceX alone has 18,712 Bitcoins on its balance sheet.
Related: These Bitcoin charts show how the BTC price can reach 100k. dollars before October
For now, Bitcoin bears remain in control as continued weakness in derivatives markets shows low confidence in the $60,000 support level. However, a sustained rise above $70,000 could quickly occur if falling oil prices continue to reduce the risk of recession, giving the Federal Reserve more room to implement less restrictive U.S. monetary policy.
There is no indication of a bull trap, especially since the (MSTR US) strategy continues to accumulate aggressively coins, completely erasing the market’s fear of sudden capitulation.
