Bitcoin (BTC) fell more than 1.6% on Friday as the latest price correction accelerated after Wall Street opened.

Key Points:

• The downward pressure on the Bitcoin price is increasing due to many unfavorable macro factors.
• US bonds mark a further hawkish change in Fed interest rate expectations.
• BTC price analysis shows that Binance’s ‘downside protection team’ is trying to shore up the market.

The analysis warns that US bond yields are now “well above” target

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD approaching $64,000 as bulls struggle to hang on to recent gains.

BTC/USD Hourly Chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic headwinds weighed on cryptocurrency markets as appetite for risky assets waned.

Mosaic Asset Company Trading Company he said the main factor of the sell-off was the rising yields of US treasury bonds.

“Despite the weaker-than-expected consumer inflation report, there are huge movements across the yield curve,” it said, referring to the latest report on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Mosaic said two-year bond yields are particularly susceptible to being affected by the outlook for changes in Federal Reserve interest rates, with risky assets taking a hit from additional increases.

“The 2-year bond yield, which Fed funds typically achieve, is currently 4.31%, well above the Federal Reserve’s target range,” he continued.

Weekly chart of two-year US treasury bond yields. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The latest data from the CME Group FedWatch tool showed that markets continue to expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged next week, while pricing in a 0.25% hike in September as one of two hikes expected before the end of 2026.

Mosaic added that these expectations “put downward pressure on stock indexes.”

Comparison of the Fed’s target interest rate probability at the September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Bitcoin’s price “dipping protection syndrome” is back

While continuously monitoring the market, cryptocurrency trader Killa found that BTC was repeating a familiar short-term trading pattern.

Related: BTC supply sees a 60% profit, but analysis indicates that the recovery may be “reversing”

“Manual setup on $BTC. I’ve seen this many times,” they he said on X, repeating a post from early June in which they identified a “dip protection team” energetic on the largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance.

The chart attached to the post showed layers of liquidity for bids below the spot price, with owners potentially having no plans to fill the position.

BTC/USDT chart with order book liquidity data. Source: Killa on X.com

The Analytics Wealthmanager account zeroed in on $64,000, warning that a break below that level would “nullify” the low-time frame market structure.

Meanwhile, trader and analyst Rekt Capital doubled down on the theory that BTC/USD is repeating its 2022 bear market behavior, rejecting the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) at $65,950.

“Bitcoin has not really provided any evidence to the contrary. We are still following historical trends from 2022,” he said. summarized.

BTC/USD monthly chart with 21, 50EMA. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com