Mexican peso Steadies on Friday as the Minister of Finance Ramirez de la O resign

Driving USD/MXN, like the American trade policy obscured economic data.
It is forecasted that Mexican inflation forecasts, but Banxico was still expecting to lower the rate on March 27.
Usmca’s four -week layoffs are secured, but tariffs for steel and aluminum remain in place.
The American dollar weakens despite the solid NFP; The price of markets in 80 bps Fed cuts in 2025.

The Mexican peso (MXN) records modest profits in relation to the US dollar (USD) and remains able to achieve a fresh week, because the exotic couple seems to find a floor near 20.22. Low heated inflation in Mexico and solid American payroll lists (NFP) were still overshadowed by the commercial policy of US President Donald Trump. USD/MXN trades at 20.26, a decrease by 0.17%.

Recently, Breaking News from Mexico revealed that the Minister of Finance Rogelio Ramirez de la O had a resignation, According to Reuters.

In February, inflation in Mexico exceeded forecasts on the main and basic data. Nevertheless, this would not compensate for another reduction in the rate by Bank Mexico (Banxico) at a meeting on March 27.

In the meantime, economic data occupy the rear place for American trade policy. Although Mexico has achieved a monthly exemption for products related to USMCA imported to the USA, there were obligations in the field of steel and aluminum. Therefore, peso can be pressure because it is one of the four largest exporters in the USA. The Minister of the Mexican Economy Marcelo Ebrard said that he would meet with American trade officials to discuss this matter.

In February, the American payroll lists have improved compared to the January data, but the sign was overlooked. The unemployment rate increased by 0.10%, but was mostly adapted to estimates.

Data from work in the US did little to boost Greenback, which fell by 3.56% per week, according to the American dollar index (DXY). The data does not suggest that the Federal Reserve (FED) must lower the rates at the upcoming meeting.

Market participants seem to be sure that the Federal Reserve (FED) will reduce interest rates in 2025 at the time of writing December 2025. Fed Funds Funds Future Futures Conture A valuation at 80 Base points of alleviation.

In the calendar, USD/MXN traders will look at the speech of the Fed Fed chairman Jerome Powell at the University of Chicago at 17:30 GMT.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Mexican peso pressure by American commercial rhetoric

The headline inflation of Mexico increased in February by 0.28% Mom, above the estimates of 0.27% and fell compared to the previous 0.29%. For 12 months, it increased by 3.77% as expected, compared to 3.59%.
Moments of core inflation increased by 0.48% compared to 0.46% forecast by analysts and from 0.41% in January. Every year, it increased by 3.65%, exceeding the forecasts by 3.62%, compared to 3.66%last month.
A study of Banco de Mexico private economists (Banxico) has shown that the inflation header will end at 3.71%, while Core CPI is expected to end 3.75%. It is forecasted that the USD/MXN exchange rate will end at 20.85 in 2025, slightly lower than the 20.90 projection in the previous study. However, in 2026 they expect more severe depreciation of peso, significantly except for level 21.30 expected in the January survey.
In February, non -farmed payroll numbers amounted to 151,000, compared to 125 thousand. January, but missing estimates at the level of 160 thousand. The unemployment rate brought to 4.1%, above the forecasts 4%.
The Reuters survey showed that 70 out of 74 economists claim that the risk of recession increased in the USA, Canada and Mexico.
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said that the monetary policy could remain stable for some time, he added that the risk of inflation is tilted up. She added that the labor market was balanced again and that wages are not a key engine of inflation pressure.
Commercial disputes between the USA and Mexico remain in the foreground. If the countries could reach an agreement, it could pave the way to regain the Mexican currency. Otherwise, another USD/MXN advantage is seen because American tariffs can cause a recession in Mexico.

Technical perspectives in USD/MXN: Mexican peso consolidates like USD/MXN remains flat near 20.30

USD/MXN, after cleaning the 100-day straight movable average (SMA) at 20.33, consolidated in the range of 20.20-20.30. The price action suggests that neither the buyer nor sellers are responsible and it seems that the couple may remain at a known level among the lack of a catalyst.

If USD/MXN cleans a 100-day SMA, the next resistance would be 20.50. If it is exceeded, another key level of resistance would be the peak on March 4 at 20.99 and year on year (YTD) 21.28.

Otherwise, the violation of the 20.00 number would reveal the 200-day SMA to 19.54.