The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its November energy outlook report. In it, the research team forecasts where they think various commodity prices will go in the coming year. Based on the latest oil data, I think so BP (LSE:BP) share price may have a tough year ahead.

Strong growth unlikely

EIA forecasts the price of Brent crude oil at $73.02 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025. This contrasts with the current price of $72.44. In other words, if we move forward a year, the difference in the price of oil may not be much. The EIA is confirmed “at least two main sources of oil price uncertainty – the future course of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the willingness of OPEC+ members to make voluntary production cuts.”

Of course, I have to be careful when reading such reports. There is no guarantee that the forecasts will come true. However, it is engaging to build an informed opinion based on these thoughts.

Most investors do not actively trade crude oil. However, fluctuations in oil prices can certainly impact the share price of companies such as BP that are heavily involved in oil and other commodities.

What impact does this have on stocks

Over the last year, BP’s share price has fallen 19%. Over the same period, oil fell 12%. So there is a clear connection here. BP generates a significant portion of its revenues from the production and sale of oil. So if the price falls, BP’s revenues will fall because it won’t be able to sell it for as much as it could have a year ago.

If revenues decline, profit will likely decline as well. This in turn affects the share price as investors try to find better opportunities elsewhere. Or the dividend may be cut due to lower profits, scaring off income investors.

In the nine months of this year, profit was $2.34 billion. This is down from $14.86 billion for the same period in 2023. So my concern is that if we move forward a year and the price of oil remains basically the same, I expect the returns will be similar as well. If this is the case, I don’t see a significant raise in BP’s share price here.

There are other factors at play

It is true that stocks can rise due to various factors. For example, the latest report showed net debt rising to $24.26 billion from $22.32 billion. If the company focuses on reducing net debt next year, it could assist the stock rise as investors become less concerned about its debt pile.

Moreover, BP deals in other products, not just oil. This applies to natural gas, biofuels and renewable energy sources. So if one of these areas does very well in the coming year, it could assist the herds.

Ultimately, though, I think BP stock could be in for a tough year unless something changes to push oil prices higher. That’s why I won’t invest now.