Bitcoin (BTC) kicks off in the third week of June with spring as the U.S.-Iran peace deal boosts the risky asset.
Key points:
- Bitcoin price action is heading towards $66,000 as US stock futures surge and hit their lowest level since early March.
- Traders see $69,000 as the likely short-term price target for BTC.
- The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is under the microscope thanks to up-to-date chairman Kevin Warsh.
- Bitcoin whales have changed their selling mentality, putting a “solid floor” near $60,000.
- The overall weakness in demand raises questions about the return of the bull market.
Oil price drops below $80 as countdown to peace in Iran begins
The U.S.-Iran war is back in the spotlight for traders this week as a peace agreement appears closer than ever.
The changes that took place over the weekend initially included: Sunday date for signing the ceasefire, but then it happened on Friday.
Multiple sources subsequently confirmed that the United States and Iran would sign an agreement on a 60-day pause in hostilities along with various other measures in Switzerland on Friday.
In post on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump confirmed that the deal would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route.
“With the opening of the Strait after the signing of the Agreement on Friday to clear mines, oil will once again flow on both sides for the region and the world!” he wrote.
Source: Truth Social
As a result, US stock futures rose and risky assets rose across the board – including Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
Oil, however, fell immediately, with the price of WTI falling below $80 per barrel for the first time since mid-April.
CFDs on the one-day chart of US WTI crude oil. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
In response, portfolio manager Danny Dayan described the deal as “the biggest and worst TACO of all time,” referring to the Trump administration’s approach to various geopolitical and macroeconomic conflicts.
“Overheating, higher core inflation and a higher neutral interest rate will be the most important macroeconomic issues,” he added he said Proponents of X see a shift away from oil as a market driver.
Throughout the conflict, the strength of oil prices has been a headwind for Bitcoin, even as seen on exchanges repeated up-to-date all-time highs.
BTC/USD has now returned to the exact same level it was trading at at the time of the trade started on February 28.
Bitcoin traders see a miniature squeeze of $69,000
News of the US-Iran peace agreement helped push BTC price action towards two-week highs ahead of Sunday’s weekly candle close.
At the start of the up-to-date week, TradingView data hit local highs of $65,988.
BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
With support at $60,000 and Bitcoin’s 200-week basic moving average (SMA) at $62,000, investors’ near-term outlook has started to improve.
“Closed near the highs with almost no upper wick, favoring growth this week,” trader SuperBro wrote in his latest analysis on X
SuperBro has identified the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as a potential short-session target.
“There are a lot of short positions with leverage up to 200 EMA around $69,000. There is a good chance that this is where it is heading,” he added.
“The second quarter will end in 2 weeks. Let’s see if the bulls can maintain their good streak.”
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: SuperBro/X
Trader CrypNuevo also had an area just below the $70,000 mark in sight for this week.
“We continue to see a return to the average level of $69,000,” he wrote X Analysis.
CrypNuevo warned that BTC/USD may further return to local lows in range-bound trading.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital agreed, stressful that price rebounds tend to fade as a bear market progresses, along with key support – in this case at $60,000.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
The up-to-date Fed chairman is under pressure to cut interest rates
However, in the context of major geopolitical changes, “all eyes” are on the US Federal Reserve.
On Wednesday, the up-to-date Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, will hold his first meeting, where a decision on changes in interest rates will be made.
Given the Iran war as a catalyst for inflation, markets see almost no chance for Warsh to cut interest rates – even though Trump has repeatedly called for just such an outcome.
In interview in AprilTrump told mainstream media that he “would” be disappointed if Warsh didn’t offer a cut at the first opportunity.
“All eyes are on the Fed this week,” trade source The Kobeissi Letter summarized in his latest analysis, X.
Fed target rate probabilities for Wednesday’s FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group
The latest data from the CME Group FedWatch tool estimates that the chance of a minimum reduction of 0.25% is only 3.4%.
In response to this, commentators overwhelmingly believe that interest rates will remain at current levels.
IN analysis on Sunday, Dayan described Warsh as “trapped no matter what he does.”
“If he is hawkish, he will break his promises to Trump,” he wrote.
“On the other hand, if he uses the recent decline in oil prices as a wait-and-see reason, I think he increases the risk that we will see panic pricing in the second half of the year as the economy overheats.”
US markets will have a shorter four-day week, with Wall Street closed on Friday for the June 16 holiday.
Whales provide a ‘solid floor’
Providing a boost to Bitcoin bulls, up-to-date analysis reveals a potential radical shift in the mentality of high-volume investors in recent days.
According to the onchain analytics platform, Bitcoin whales CryptoQuantthey became buyers again.
Looking at whale wallet inflows, CryptoQuant data shows that coin days destroyed (CDD) – the number of days funds lay dormant after a recent move – have cooled significantly.
“CDD inflows dropped from 2.16 million to almost zero (33,000), showing that long-term whale abandonment has completely stopped,” contributor Woo Minkyu wrote on the Quicktake blog on Monday.
Bitcoin whale data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
Woo described the whales as making “aggressive bottom-buying” at around $61,000, absorbing panic on “all” coins being sold by other investor groups.
“The transfer of wealth from weak to strong hands has been completed,” he concluded.
“Whales closed in the $60,000-$61,500 range as a rock solid bottom. With foreign exchange reserves depleted, the path of least resistance for Bitcoin is now firmly up.”
Before, Cointelegraph reported that the three key conditions for a BTC price rebound have almost been met. According to analyzes at that time, whales on Hyperliquid and Bitfinex were already prepared for a rebound.
Visible demand for Bitcoin remains negative
As for a full bull market recovery, CryptoQuant remains cautious in airy of current onchain data.
Related: Bitcoin miners ‘capulation’ comes as trader sees bottom in 2026 bear market
Visible demand, XWIN Japan collaborator notesis still negative, which has always coincided with bear markets in the past.
Apparent demand for Bitcoin (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
Apparent demand is the difference between Bitcoin – or newly mined coins – being issued and supply that has been dormant for over a year.
“If the decline in inventories exceeds production, demand increases and vice versa” – Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant explains.
As such, the current negative numbers signal a broad disinterest in BTC exposure and could even invalidate the four-year cycle theory to dictate future price action, XWIN says.
“This suggests that Bitcoin’s price may not be falling simply because the cycle says so. Instead, demand growth has slowed,” it wrote this weekend.
Apparent demand for Bitcoin (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
XWIN also pointed to a decline in open interest in Bitcoin futures markets, reiterating the theory that a the final “surrender” event. may yet happen.
