Bitcoin developers need to swallow their pride and come up with a clear plan to strengthen the blockchain against quantum computing attacks, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards. He says that the day they finally bite the bullet, the price will react very quickly.

“If Bitcoin’s core team says in two or three months, ‘this is our roadmap, we’ll solve it over the next two years, here are the initial steps we’ll take,’ that would be amazing news,” Edwards tells Cointelegraph about trade secrets.

“I think that would reduce the risk significantly overnight,” Edwards says.

The question of whether Bitcoin developers should modify the network to make its cryptography quantum-resistant has sparked heated debate in the Bitcoin community, with some arguing that major changes could run counter to Bitcoin’s core ethos. Others say that quantum computers will be years away and that rushed treatment may be worse than the disease.

Charles Edwards says a clear plan of action can drive up the price “very quickly.”

Edwards often emphasizes to his 132,800X followers the risks of quantum computing in Bitcoin. The fear is that sufficiently powerful quantum computers could one day break the cryptography protecting the Bitcoin network and potentially compromise Bitcoin wallets.

The uncertainty has affected investor sentiment, and some analysts say it has contributed to Bitcoin’s price decline. The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, recently pointed to quantum computing as a potential long-term risk in materials for Bitcoin ETF spot investors.

However, Edwards says that if Bitcoin developers outline a clear roadmap for addressing the quantum threat, as some other networks have already done, Bitcoin’s price could rise “very quickly.”

Source: Charles Edwards

“Probably double digits,” Edwards predicts. He adds that the quantum issue is a “somewhat counter-intuitive potential growth catalyst” because it is currently on the back burner and current Bitcoin (BIP) improvement proposals are “not really” a “real” solution.

Edwards is no stranger to making compelling calls on Bitcoin. Based in Melbourne, Australia, he founded Capriole Investments in 2019, a hedge fund focused on Bitcoin and digital assets. The company uses a combination of quantitative models, artificial intelligence and macroeconomic analysis to guide its investment strategy in cryptocurrency markets.

Related: StarkWare CEO Suggests 4% Annual Bitcoin Inflation to Replace 21M Cap

Charles Edwards claims that Bitcoin’s price is 40% below its fair value

A growing number of observers fear that the risks could become more solemn if Bitcoin’s creators do not make the necessary changes to the network before 2030. Ethereum is expected to complete its post-quantum overhaul by 2029, which will shed airy on Bitcoin’s own preparations.

At the time of publication, Bitcoin’s price is $65,270. Source: CoinMarketCap

Edwards estimates that Bitcoin’s price is currently about 40% below its energy-based fair value, while arguing that quantum risk accounts for about 30% of the discount. “That means it’s more than overpriced,” Edwards said. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $65,270, about 49% below October’s all-time highs of $126,100.

Edwards explains that Bitcoin’s current price reflects quantum risk based on information available today, not any unknown future events that could accelerate the threat and drive the price even lower.

His estimates are based on the timeline set by leading quantum computing companies and researchers for when “Q Day” might arrive, the moment when quantum computers become powerful enough to be able to recreate private keys from public keys.

“It’s in the four- to five-year range, with a few years allowed,” Edwards says.

Edwards says he also takes into account the time it will take for Bitcoin to develop and implement a solution, which BIP-360 author Ethan Heilman estimates could take years.

“If we do the math, it’s pretty simple; it’s just a collection of expert opinions. So we’re building on that and the fact that there’s currently no solution for Bitcoin.”

“That risk again goes down significantly if there’s a solution or if there’s a plan to solve it. But it could also go up if tomorrow we find out that Google is, you know, twice as far along on its roadmap for Q Day or another big company,” he said.

“It’s priced in today, but that doesn’t mean it can’t get worse or better. I just think it’s more likely to be tilted in favor from here,” Edwards says.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s quantum dilemma: larger blocks or STARK proofs?