With Bitcoin (BTC) hitting its lowest levels in months, some market observers are warning that the leading cryptocurrency may be bracing for another major decline as it retests a critical technical area that has marked a turning point in the past.

Bitcoin Key Markers 200-Week SMA After Four Years

After falling 15% in the last four days, Bitcoin is trying to regain the $64,000 level as support. Since the crash in early February, the price of the flagship cryptocurrency has fluctuated between $64,000 and $82,000, remaining above the upper half of the range for almost two months.

However, greater volatility this week pushed BTC towards the lower end of the range for the first time in months, hitting a four-month low of $61,383 on Wednesday evening.

Following these results, market observer Rekt Capital highlighted that the cryptocurrency has reached its 200-week plain moving average (SMA) for the first time in this bear cycle, which could signal the arrival of another correction.

As he explained, a deviation below this SMA “has been key to building a lower bear market pattern in the past.” In June 2022, Bitcoin reached this level during a bear market correction, quickly losing it as support on a weekly time horizon.

After initially falling below the 200-week SMA, the leading cryptocurrency traded sideways, briefly retesting that level before continuing its decline to a bear market low in overdue 2022.

Now, BTC has reached this key SMA almost four years later, suggesting a drop to recent lows if the 2022 scenario repeats itself. The analyst noted that Bitcoin has been rejected from the critical area and has broken through the key level, which is another similarity to previous bear market corrections.

According to the post, BTC was rejected from the base of the Macro Triangle after failing to break the $82,500 area, during the recent decline it revisited the 50-month EMA and is currently breaking out of this EMA, which is a setup that has been repeated in every cycle before the market bottom.

$60,000 BTC Support Will Give Up Soon?

The capital of Recht pointed notes that Bitcoin’s gains in the $60,000 region are gradually fading from 2024, signaling deteriorating support. While the price rose 113% in this area during the mid-2024 rally, the February 2026 retest only generated a 38% move.

Currently, the cryptocurrency has rebounded 4% so far, “but it is very likely that the rebound from here will be even weaker,” the analyst said, adding that “the $60,000 area will completely lose support over time.”

He too he stated that during a bear market, Bitcoin tends to form multi-month price clusters followed by recent macro-low highs, and then spreads out of the clusters to reach recent lows.

“The good news is that there are 1-2 such clusters left in the Bitcoin bear market, with the bottom of the bear market being the last cluster,” he concluded.

Meanwhile, Ali Martinez confirmed that the recent breakdown of $72,000 support has put Bitcoin “in a vulnerable position” as it opens the door to a 25-30% correction based on MVRV price bands.

The analyst previously noted that Bitcoin has consistently bottomed between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV price bands over the past decade. Now the next major support area is between $54,000 and $50,000, which is where the 1.0 price range is.

Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com