Standard Chartered’s Tommy Wu raises Taiwan’s 2026 growth forecast to 9.5% from 7.6% after much better-than-expected Q1 GDP data. An AI supercycle and powerful exports are seen as key drivers, while private consumption benefits from government benefits and technology-led share price gains. The bank expects the CBC to keep interest rates at 2%, but sees higher inflation risks due to stronger domestic demand.
The AI supercycle is driving solid expansion
“We are raising our 2026 growth forecast to 9.5% (from 7.6%) to reflect a much stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP print.”
“According to preliminary estimates, GDP in the first quarter grew by 13.7% y/y (2.8% q/q), the fastest since 1987.”
“We expect AI-related demand to remain high, which will drive Taiwan’s development.”
“That said, GDP growth may slow y/y in the second half of the year, with high base effects weighing on exports and GDP, especially in the fourth quarter.”
“We continue to expect the Central Bank of Taiwan (CBC) to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 2% this year, with a K-shaped economy as a constraint.”
(This article was created with the facilitate of an artificial intelligence tool and has been reviewed by an editor.)
