Australia will publish its monthly jobs report for March on Thursday at 01:30 GMT, and market participants expect: moderate job growth. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is expected to announce that the country has created 20,000 jobs this month. novel jobs, however the unemployment rate is forecast at 4.3%unchanged since February. Meanwhile, the participation rate in the previous month was 66.9%.
The ABS reports both full-time and part-time positions as part of the monthly employment change. Generally, a full-time job involves working 38 or more hours per week, usually comes with benefits, and usually provides a steady income. On the other hand, part-time employment usually means a higher hourly wage but lacks consistency and benefits. This is why the economy prefers full-time work. In February, Australia gained 79.4 thousand. part-time positions and lost 30.5 thousand. full time.
The unemployment rate in Australia remained unchanged in March
Australia’s employment figures may be overshadowed by continued optimism. The Australian dollar (AUD) is gaining strongly against the weakened US dollar (USD) as investors assess developments in the Iran war. Enlargement ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran is on the table and is improving market sentiment despite the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
The ongoing crisis in the Middle East has dominated financial markets as the disruption of oil and gas supplies increased inflationary pressures around the world. Central banks are moving towards a more hawkish approach to monetary policy, although this is not the case The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which had adopted a hawkish stance before the war, in line with the communiqué accompanying the March monetary policy decision, amid pressure on domestic productive capacity that keeps inflation above target and labor market strength. The war in Iran was another factor that tipped the scales towards tightening monetary policy.
As a result, the RBA raised interest rates, increasing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.1%, as policymakers noted, “while inflation has declined significantly since its peak in 2022, it has recovered significantly in the second half of 2025.” The decision was quite split, with policymakers voting 5-4 in favor of the boost.
The expected employment numbers aren’t really great, with 20,000. novel jobs is barely enough to trigger an RBA response on its own, but combined with domestic inflationary pressures and the expansion of the Iran data, it will largely support it further interest rate increases are planned this year.
Higher-than-expected job growth combined with a falling unemployment rate should boost expectations of interest rate increases, pushing the Australian further ahead of most of its major rivals. In turn, a disastrous employment report could reduce concerns about the strength of the labor market, but it is not enough to consider changing the current hawkish monetary policy. This may impact AUD in the near future, but for as long as the risk is based on USD weaknessthe pair will likely resume its momentum as market participants digest the news and turn their eyes to the Middle East.
When will the Australian jobs report be released and what impact might it have on AUD/USD?
The ABS March jobs report will be published early Thursday morning. As previously mentioned, the Australian economy is expected to create 20,000 jobs this month. novel jobs, while the unemployment rate is forecast at 4.3%. Market participants will also pay attention to the division of positions into full-time and part-time.
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “Ahead of the jobs report, AUD/USD is trading well above the 0.7100 level and a few pips below the 2026 high of 0.7187. The technical picture is bullish and there is a good chance that optimistic data indicating further increases in interest rates would push the pair beyond said peak. The pair may initially move towards the 0.7230 area, while additional gains will encounter further resistance at the 0.7270 level.
Bednarik adds: “As long as markets remain hopeful about the war in Iran, the dollar will lag behindwhich means the scope for AUD/USD declines is restricted. Employment data must be truly discouraging to cause a decline, which should be short-lived. The immediate downward barrier is the 0.7100 threshold, followed by the 0.7060 price zone. Further declines seem unlikely at this publication, although sudden USD demand could push the pair down to 0.7000.”
Employment FAQs
Conditions on the labor market are a key element in assessing the condition of the economy, and thus a key factor influencing currency valuation. High employment or low unemployment has a positive impact on consumer spending and therefore economic growth, increasing the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill vacant positions – may also have an impact on inflation levels and therefore monetary policy, as low labor supply and high demand lead to higher wages.
The pace of wage growth in the economy is of key importance to decision-makers. High wage growth means households have more money to spend, which usually leads to higher prices for consumer goods. Unlike more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage increases are seen as a key element of underlying and sustained inflation because increases are unlikely to be reversed. Central banks around the world pay particular attention to wage growth data when making monetary policy decisions.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks have explicit labor market powers beyond controlling inflation. For example, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mission: promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the sole task of the European Central Bank (ECB) is to keep inflation under control. Still, despite all the mandates it has, labor market conditions are an crucial factor for policymakers, given their importance as an indicator of the health of the economy and their direct link to inflation.
Economic indicator
Unemployment rates are
Unemployment rate published by the Municipality Australian Bureau of Statisticsis the number of unemployed people divided by the total civilian labor force, expressed as a percentage. If the indicator increases, it indicates a lack of expansion in the Australian labor market and a weakness of the Australian economy. A decline in this value is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while an boost is seen as bearish.
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