CPI in the US is lower than expected, but an April interest rate cut is still unlikely

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The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, showing a 0.9% month-over-month enhance in headline CPI inflation.

According to the BLS, CPI inflation increased by 3.3% year over year report published on Friday. Although inflation was slightly lower than the analyst expectationsinflation remains elevated above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

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A surge in energy prices sparked by the Iran war prompted March inflation numbers, with the energy price index rising nearly 11%, helped by a 21.2% enhance in gasoline prices, according to the BLS report.

12-month CPI percentage changes by category. Source: BLS

Inflation management is part of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, which influences its decision-making on interest rates and broader monetary policy.

Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency prices are significantly impacted by interest rate policy, with lower interest rates stimulating asset prices by increasing the level of credit flowing into financial markets, and higher rates reducing capital flows and asset prices.

Related: Bitcoin stabilizes after PCE inflation data, target of 80 thousand dollars remains unchanged

Traders see no chance for interest rate cuts at the Fed’s April meeting

According to CME Group’s FedWatch, investors forecast a 0% chance of an interest rate cut at the April meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). tool.

The chance that the FOMC will maintain interest rates is 98.4%. The chances of interest rate cuts enhance gradually throughout the year.

Federal Reserve, Bitcoin Price, United States, Inflation, Interest Rate
Probable interest rate targets for the April FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

FOMC members are divided on further interest rate cuts in 2026 due to inflation pressures caused by the ongoing war and do not rule out interest rate increases.

Bitcoin surges after latest CPI print

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose more than 1.5% on Friday, briefly reaching $73,000 after the latest CPI print.

“The $73,000-$75,000 zone is our next main target,” said Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21shares, a provider of cryptocurrency exchange-traded products.

“If BTC sorts this out, expect a short period of sideways consolidation before the $80,000 test. If the Clarity Act passes, the stage will be set at $100,000 BTC and a total cryptocurrency market cap of $3 trillion – $3.2 trillion by the end of the second quarter,” he added.

Warehouse: Big Questions: Can Bitcoin Save You from the Dreaded Cantillon Effect?

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