XRP is struggling with key demand levels. The market is preparing for a decisive move. And the data below the price describes a competition between two groups of participants who have come to completely different conclusions about what will happen next.

A report by CryptoQuant identified a discrepancy in the XRP market structure that makes the current price level more significant than it appears at first glance. The CVD spot on Binance has grown to $451 million – real capital, exchanged for real XRP, growing steadily on the buy side. The participants behind this number believe in the current price. They put money into this belief.

At the same time, Binance Perpetual CVD is around -$1.5 billion, while All CEX Perpetual CVD is around -$1 billion. The derivatives market is not neutral. This is an lively bear trend – leveraged traders are positioning themselves for a decline in XRP, with confidence sturdy enough to sustain nearly $1.5 billion in negative cumulative positioning.

Two markets. Two verdicts. One price level has been captured between them.

Spot buyers capture what derivatives traders are betting against. This animated – real demand meeting leveraged skepticism at the same price – is not a stable state. One side is storing fuel for the forced exit of the other. The next article explains which side of the story usually favors.

The spot side takes what the derivatives side sells. This is nothing.

The report Term interpretation occurs where the discrepancy becomes most significant. Building spot demand in the face of bearish futures positioning does not simply represent a difference of opinion between two groups of participants – it represents a structural animated in which losses on one side become a catalyst for the other. As spot buyers absorb the selling pressure generated by derivatives traders, the supply available to reduce the price decreases. When it declines sufficiently, bearish leveraged positions that were expected to profit from the decline become liabilities – and the process of unwinding them increases buying pressure, not selling pressure.

This mechanism – commonly known as compact squeeze – does not require a primary catalytic converter to run. It only requires that spot market demand continues to enhance while the bear market remains crowded. The report points to liquidation activity as an additional signal of the same fragility: derivatives positioning is not simply bearish, but exposed.

The report lays out exactly what causes this and what it doesn’t confirm. This is not a bullish signal. This is a pre-bull structure – spot support forms beneath the market that leveraged traders continue to bet against. These are different things and the distinction matters.

The difference between $451 million in spot purchases and $1.5 billion in bearish futures positioning is the distance between current reality and a potential forced response. If spot demand continues to grow and this gap widens, the bearish sentiment towards derivatives will go from being a headwind to being a fuel.

XRP Falls as Sellers Remain in Control

XRP is trading near $1.31, continuing to show signs of weakness after failing to regain higher levels following February’s crash. The chart shows a continued downtrend, with price consistently making lower highs and lower lows over the past few months, indicating that selling pressure remains dominant.

After a piercing capitulation in early February – characterized by a significant enhance in volume – XRP entered a consolidation range between approximately $1.25 and $1.50. However, this range did not result in a significant recovery. Instead, recent price action indicates a gradual move towards the lower end of the range, suggesting that demand is weakening rather than strengthening.

Both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are trending down above price. Acting as animated resistance and stopping any short-term upside. The 200-day moving average remains significantly higher, which reinforces the broader bearish structure and confirms that XRP has not yet shown a reversal.

Volume has declined in this consolidation phase, indicating reduced participation and restricted buyer confidence. This lack of demand is evident in the repeated failure to sustain moves above $1.40.

Unless XRP manages to reclaim key moving averages and break out of this range with force, the current structure favors continued pressure, with a potential retest of lower support levels.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com