To put it mildly, shareholders in it FTSE250 the home builder survived a complex period. However, after solemn warnings about profits and the assumption of duties of a novel boss, can we expect economic recovery?

Let’s take a closer look.

What’s the story?

In September 2024 Vistra Group (LSE:VTY) was very bullish. It said it expected “year-on-year profit growthUnfortunately, in October 2024, the company had to disclose that one of its divisions had underestimated total construction costs by approximately 10%. Effect? A result of £80m on expected adjusted profit before tax (PBT) for 2024, which was revised down to £350m.

Worse still, a month later, after an internal review, the group found that it had again reported incorrect amounts. Another £25 million is a cut in profit forecasts.

And then, on Christmas Eve, the group announced:delays in expected year-end transactions and completionsIt said net debt would now be around £200m compared to a previously expected neutral position.

In the same month he was demoted from FTSE100.

Fast forward to 2026. The group’s novel CEO took office in April. As they say, a novel broom sweeps pristine.

What now?

Indeed, last month (May 13), the group announced an escalate in sales dynamics and reported “excellent progress” in achieving its financial goals. However, it also stated: “the use of increased incentives and discounts” was higher than expected. It warned that it now expects 2026 adjusted PBT to be within the mid-range of analyst forecasts (£168m-283m).

This is disappointing for shareholders in a group that I believe should be doing much better given its emphasis on affordable homes. Unlike its rivals, which focus more on private housing, Vistry works with local authorities, housing associations and private rented sector players to build affordable properties (around two-thirds of all completed developments). These third parties often provide staged payments to lend a hand finance construction, meaning the group has less need for working capital. And his partners usually own the land.

However, the group stated that this activity is “relatively subdued” as the industry moves between different phases of the Government’s Affordable Housing Program (SAHP), however, this should be a fleeting setback.

The results of tenders for money from the program for 2026-2036 will be known soon. The group expects “demand growth… at the end of 2026 and in 2027This means it could be a good time to consider the stock.

After all, how much more bad news can there be?

My view

Admittedly, the full inflationary impact of the four-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not yet known. The housing market is notoriously cyclical, and borrowing costs are the largest factor influencing demand.

However, I suspect that the worst is now behind the group. I bet these spreadsheets have been triple-checked by Vistra’s novel management team. And if I were a company director, I would be cautious in making any predictions.

At the macro level, politicians always focus on building more affordable housing. This is what SAHP is all about. Everyone seems to agree that there are shortages in the country.

Overall, despite the obvious risks associated with the housing market, I believe this is a long-term stock worth considering.

Is it worth investing £5,000 in Vistry Group Plc now?

If investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have stock advice, it can pay to listen. After all, Twelfth Magpie’s flagship Share Advisor newsletter, which it has run for almost a decade, provides thousands of paying members with the best share recommendations from across the UK and US markets.

Mark believes there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying right now. Want to check if Vistry Group Plc is on the list?

James Beard holds no shares in any of the companies mentioned.