UOB’s Global Economics & Markets Research, led by Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Vincentius Ming Shen, notes that Indonesia’s trade surplus increased slightly in February 2026 to $1.27 billion, extending its 70-month gains. The report highlighted powerful value-added exports and rising imports of capital goods, but stressed that the overall trade surplus is likely to narrow as geopolitical tensions and supply chain risks weigh on Indonesia’s external position.

The prospects for excess immunity are increasingly narrowing

“Going forward, the trade surplus may decline despite continued downstream efforts and a shift towards higher value exports amid risks from global supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions.”

“The downstreaming strategy has produced tangible results, especially for nickel, and should be extended to other commodities such as iron and steel, coal and refined fuels.”

“The Balikpapan Refinery provides an additional strategic source of export revenues in the wake of the current tensions in the Middle East.”

“Regional and global trade partnerships, including ASEAN cooperation and reciprocal tariff agreements, will be critical to maintaining momentum.”

(This article was created with the assist of an artificial intelligence tool and has been reviewed by an editor.)