On Thursday, as expected, the European Central Bank (EBC) reduced its key rates by 25 base points at the March politics meeting. This movement causes the main indicator of refinancing surgery to be 2.65%, while the marginal credit rates and deposit offers currently amount to 2.90%and 2.50%, respectively.

EBC Policy Key Instructions

Inflation is still developing broadly, as staff were expected, and the latest forecasts are strictly in line with previous inflation perspectives.

Employees now see an inflation header on average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027.

In the case of inflation, excluding energy and food, employees display an average of 2.2% in 2025, 2.0% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027.

National inflation remains high, mainly because wages and prices in some sectors are still adapting to an earlier boost in inflation with a long delay.

Monetary policy becomes significantly less restrictive, because interest rate reductions make novel loans cheaper for companies and households, and the boost in loans is growing.

At the same time, the wind to alleviate the financing conditions comes from earlier interest rate increases, which are still transferred to credit shares, and the loans remain generally subdued.

The economy faces constant challenges, and employees again set their growth forecasts – up to 0.9% for 2025, 1.2% for 2026 and 1.3% for 2027.

Down the amendments in 2025 and 2026 reflect lower exports and constant weakness of the investment, partly from the uncertainty of high trade policy, as well as broader uncertainty of politics.

Especially in the current conditions of growing uncertainty will be consistent with the approach depending on data and meeting in order to determine the appropriate monetary policy position.

In particular, decisions regarding interest rates will be based on the assessment of inflation perspectives in the lightweight of incoming economic and financial data, dynamics of basic inflation and the power of transfer of monetary policy.

EBC is not initially related to a specific path.

In this section below was published as a preview of ads regarding the policy of the European Central Bank at 08:00 GMT.

• The European Central Bank is on the right track to the delivery of another 25 BPS interest rate reduction on Thursday.
• He focuses on updated EBC economic forecasts and the words of President Christine Lagarde.
• Setting the EUR/USD pair for intensive variability in ECB policy advertisements.

The European Central Bank (EBC) will announce its March interest rate on Thursday at 13:15 GMT. The central bank is set to reduce the sixth rate from June 2024. The updated staff’s economic forecasts will be published at this meeting.

President EBC Christine Lagarde will organize a press conference at 13:45 GMT. At this conference he will give a prepared statement on monetary policy and ask questions from the media.

Euro (EUR) remains prepared for a gigantic reaction to EBC ads in relation to the American dollar (USD).

Follow our live relations here

What can you expect from the decision of the European Central Bank?

EBC is on the right track to provide another 25 base points (BPS) after a March political meeting, reducing the comparative rate in the field of deposits from 2.75% to 2.5%.

The decision to lower the rate is unexplored because the impoverished economic prospects for the euro area remain the main reason for concern for ECB decision -makers. The disinflation path of the senior continent remains intact, enabling ECB some space to continue its soothing trajectory.

The data published on Monday by Eurostat showed that the harmonized consumer price ratio (HICP) in the euro area increased by 2.4% year -on -year (Yoy) in February after registration of 2.5% growth in January. The market forecast concerned 2.3% acceleration in the reported period. Meanwhile, the basic HICP was promoted in February by 2.6%, compared to a 2.7% boost in January, meeting 2.6% of expectations.

However, the bank’s tips on the next movement of interest rates will catch eyeballs among the upcoming steri (USA) of President Donald Trump on the European Union tariff (EU), which can significantly affect the inflation and economic perspectives of the block. Trump threatened to apply 25% of the EU import tariffs last week, claiming that the economic and political block was created by “fucking” USA.

Therefore, the language in a political statement and updated economic forecasts will be strictly studied to assess the time and scope of future cuts of ECB rates. According to the latest Reuters survey, “EBC will take another 50 BPS from the deposit rate in the next quarter, and then persist at at least 2026.” “Markets fully valued at the end rate of 2.00%”, the study showed.

Markets continue the valuation of further foot reductions, even when the best decision -makers shared arguing messages. A member of the ECB board and vocal policy Hawk Isabel Schnabel said in an interview with the Financial Times (FT) last month: “We are approaching the point where we can interrupt or stop our rates.”

“I’m not saying that we are still there. But we have to start the discussion – she added.

On the other hand, her colleague and head of the Italian Central Bank, Fabio Panetta, noticed: “Available indicators seem to suggest that inflation falling below 2% in the medium period remains the dominant risk.”

Meanwhile, bills from the January EBB meeting published on February 27 showed: “Members agreed that the disinfection process was on the right track. However, there was some evidence suggesting a change in risk balance to the advantages of December. “

The bills added that some decision -makers argued for “greater caution” in terms of size and pace of further rates of rates, because the policy rates were approaching the neutral level.

Looking at the EBC meeting, TD Securities analysts said: “Having only five weeks from their last meeting, there is little to move the shield, and the cut by 25 b / s is widely expected. Projections should see minimal changes, and although the language around the “restrictive” policy can be slightly changed, we doubt that it is fully removed. “

“April/June will be much more interesting meetings and highly dependent on tariffs,” added analysts.

How can the ECB meeting affect EUR/USD?

The EUR/USD pair remains insurmountable in the period preceding the risk of the ECB. The couple extends the revival from a two -week minima 1.0360, when the euro jumps to the reforms of the debt of debt proposed by Germany. Will the main retaining pace in Ceate Commate?

ECB is expected to remain caution in terms of the prospects of the principles, repeating that it is not on any previously specific path of interest rates. However, if the bank makes any significant change in its “restrictive” political language, markets can see it as a hawk change and add to the renovated Mount EUR/USD. The couple are to expand recovery in the direction of 1,0700 in such a scenario.

However, the main pair of currencies may be under intensive sales pressure if there is no change in the language or tone of a political statement. EURO may suffer if President ECB Lardha clearly supports future rate reductions, expressing concerns about impoverished economic perspectives.

Dhwani Mehta, a leading analyst at the Asian session in FxStreet, offers a miniature technical perspective for EUR/USD:

“Recovery of EUR/USD remains unchanged, heading to the showroom ECB. However, the relative force indicator (RSI) is in the region purchased on the daily chart, justifying caution for euro buyers. If the correction is developed, immediate support of the 200-day straight movable medium (SMA) at 1.0723 will be tested. Acceptance at this level will expose the level of 1,0600 level. The last line of defense for EUR/USD buyers is the 100-day SMA at 1.0507. “

“If the EURO buyers oppose the bears with technical indicators, the door will probably open to a level of 1.0900. In addition, their radars will be the highest level of 2024. 1,0937. “