Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock speaks at a press conference following the November monetary policy announcement.
Bullock is taking questions from the press as part of the central bank’s novel reporting format that began this year.
Earlier on Tuesday, the RBA announced it would leave its key interest rate unchanged at its 12-year level of 4.35%. The central bank remained undecided on the next change in interest rates.
Key quotes from the RBA press conference
I believe that interest rates must remain tight for now.
We believe there is still a risk of inflation rising.
If the economy declines more than expected, we will be ready to act.
We need to see that core inflation is coming back into line.
Today’s discussion was similar to that from the September meeting.
The conversation focused more on “what we needed to see to change our minds” about politics.
The current interest rate path as priced in by the market is as good as any other.
Inflation and policy risks are fairly balanced.
We cannot ignore the risks associated with events abroad, but our main focus is on the domestic front.
Economic indicator
RBA press conference
Following Reserve Bank of Australiaeconomic policy decision (RBA), the governor gives a press conference explaining the monetary policy decision. The typical format is a roughly one-hour talk that begins with prepared remarks and then opens to questions from the press. Hawkish comments tend to strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD), while dovish messages tend to weaken it.
The section below was published at 03:30 GMT and provides information on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy announcements and the initial market reaction.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced on Tuesday that it had left its Official Interest Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% following its November policy meeting.
The decision was in line with market expectations.
The RBA maintained its policy brief for the eighth meeting in a row, raising its benchmark rate by 25 basis points (bps) in November last year.
Summary of the RBA’s monetary policy statement
The Board will continue to rely on data and evolving risk assessments.
Core inflation remains too high.
Inflation is not expected to return to the midpoint of the target on a sustained basis until 2026.
Policy will need to remain sufficiently restrictive until the Council is confident that inflation remains towards its target range.
Although headline inflation has declined significantly and will remain lower for some time, core inflation is more indicative of inflation dynamics and remains too high.
The Management Board does not prejudge or exclude anything.
Production growth was delicate.
Still outpacing supply, the gap is closing.
Core inflation remains elevated, services inflation will only decline gradually.
The labor market remains tight and demand for labor remains mighty.
Household consumption increased less than expected and will probably remain unchanged in the third quarter.
Policy in Australia is not as restrictive as in most partner countries, even after recent interest rate cuts overseas.
The RBA lowers forecasts for GDP growth and household consumption, lowers CPI and core inflation.
Average trimmed inflation will be 3.4% in December, 3.0% in June 2025, 2.8% in December 2025 and 2.5% in December 2026.
It projects unemployment to be 4.3% in December, 4.5% in December 2025 and 4.5% in December 2026.
It is challenging to maintain wage growth at the current level without increasing productivity.
AUD/USD reaction to the RBA’s interest rate decision
The Australian dollar is flat following the extended RBA break. The AUD/USD pair is up 0.10% on the day, reaching 0.6590.
PRICE in Australian dollars Last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the major currencies listed over the last 7 days. The Australian dollar was strongest against the British pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | BOOR | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.59% | 0.12% | -0.53% | 0.08% | -0.17% | 0.04% | -0.15% | |
| EUR | 0.59% | 0.72% | 0.03% | 0.67% | 0.42% | 0.64% | 0.48% | |
| GBP | -0.12% | -0.72% | -0.67% | -0.04% | -0.29% | -0.09% | -0.24% | |
| JPY | 0.53% | -0.03% | 0.67% | 0.62% | 0.37% | 0.57% | 0.43% | |
| BOOR | -0.08% | -0.67% | 0.04% | -0.62% | -0.25% | -0.04% | -0.19% | |
| AUD | 0.17% | -0.42% | 0.29% | -0.37% | 0.25% | 0.21% | 0.03% | |
| NZD | -0.04% | -0.64% | 0.09% | -0.57% | 0.04% | -0.21% | -0.17% | |
| CHF | 0.15% | -0.48% | 0.24% | -0.43% | 0.19% | -0.03% | 0.17% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
The section below was published on November 4 at 21:45 GMT as a preview of policy announcements from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
- Australia’s benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged at 4.35% in November.
- Comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock and updated economic forecasts remain in focus.
- The Australian dollar could weaken if RBA Governor Bullock increases support for December’s interest rate cut.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to be once again wary of its monetary policy, extending its pause to an eighth consecutive meeting on Tuesday.
After the November meeting, the RBA will maintain the official cash rate (OCR) at 4.35%. The decision will be announced at 03:30 GMT, followed by a press conference by Governor Michele Bullock at 04:30 GMT.
The Reserve Bank of Australia remains condemned once again
As the no-change decision becomes fully priced in this month, market attention will turn to the RBA’s updated economic forecasts and Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference for novel guidance on the timing of the central bank’s first interest rate cut since monetary policy tightened following Covid pandemic cycle.
Difficult core inflation and challenging labor market conditions continue to support a cautious stance by Australia’s central bank.
The RBA’s preferred measure of inflation, the annual average consumer price index (CPI), fell to 3.5% from 4.0% in the third quarter but remained above the bank’s target of 2%-3%. Inflation in the services sector also remained at an elevated level.
Moreover, the RBA’s annual report published on October 25 reiterated that inflation would not be sustained within the 2-3% target for “another year or two”.
Meanwhile, the Australian economy added 64,100 jobs in September, exceeding the estimated net gain of 25,000 jobs. Of the novel jobs created in September, 51,600 were full-time positions. The unemployment rate in September remained unchanged at 4.1%, compared to forecasts of an raise to 4.2%.
This data potentially precludes any policy change this week and for the rest of this year. According to BBH analysts, markets currently estimate the probability of a 25 basis point Christmas rate cut at less than 20%.
Announcing the RBA’s policy decision, TD Securities (TDS) analysts said: “The RBA is unlikely to debate the case for a rate hike, but we don’t believe the forecasts reveal the Bank is considering cuts in the coming months. For now we are sticking to May 2025 as the first RBA cut.”
How will the RBA interest rate decision affect AUD/USD?
The Australian dollar (AUD) is retreating from a two-month low against the US dollar (USD) in the run-up to the RBA announcements. Will the central bank provide additional elements for the AUD/USD recovery?
The ongoing upward trend could continue if the RBA reiterates that “The Board is not assuming or ruling anything out” while acknowledging the risk of rising inflation. Therefore, the Bank’s cautious approach is expected to bring AUD/USD back towards 0.6700.
On the other hand, the pair could see a edged sell-off towards 0.6500 if RBA Governor Michele Bullock states in a post-meeting press conference that the Board discussed the option of cutting interest rates at the meeting.
Dhwani Mehta, Chief Analyst for the Asia Session at FXStreet, highlights key technicals for AUD/USD trading depending on the policy outcome. “AUD/USD is up in the air, testing the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) ahead of the RBA decision. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is rebounding sharply but remains below the 50 level, currently near 41, which is encouraging for sellers.”
“Buyers need acceptance above the 200-day SMA at 0.6629 to ensure a sustained recovery. The next upper barriers are visible at the 0.6700 threshold and the 50-day SMA at 0.6730. On the other hand, a renewed decline could test the two-month low at 0.6537, below which the 0.6500 level will provide buyers with some respite. Further south, the August 6 low of 0.6472 will come into effect,” Dhwani adds.
