Persimmon share price jumps after sturdy first half of year. Will there be more?

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This Kaki (LSE:PSN) was ahead of the pack this morning (August 8). This despite the company reporting a drop in profit for the first half of 2024.

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However, looking ahead, I believe shareholders have many reasons to be hopeful.

Upper end of the tips

Let’s put the negative aside, shall we? Reported pre-tax profit for the six months to the end of June was £146.3m, down slightly from the £151m achieved a year earlier. But I think that’s still impressive given the economic headwinds that housebuilders have collectively faced in recent years.

On a more positive note, revenues rose by 11% to £1.32bn, helped by a slight augment in the average selling price of recent homes to £263,288.

The number of homes completed also reached 4,445, and the company said it now aims to hit 10,500 for the full year. That’s at the high end of previous forecasts — exactly the kind of thing investors like me want to hear.

More in the future?

While it’s worth keeping your expectations in check when it comes to any stock in the miniature term, I can’t assist but feel increasingly hopeful about my Persimmon stake and the property market in general.

Whether or not it achieves its target of building 1.5 million homes over the next five years, the recent government’s willingness to change planning laws has been welcomed by the sector and the company is clearly keen to capitalise on it. A total of £195m was spent on land in the first half of the year. The land bank now stands at 81,545 plots.

The arrival of Keir Starmer and Co also looks set to assist demand. Since the start of July, the private net sales ratio has been 0.69, up almost 70% on a year earlier. The private order book has risen 28% to £1.12bn.

Add to this the first interest rate cut in early August, and everything indicates that the economic recovery will become lasting and solid.

Bias aside, it looks like my patience — I started buying about 18 months ago — is starting to pay off.

Everything included in the price?

Or maybe I’m getting ahead of myself. After rising almost 40% in the past 12 months (and 15% year to date), you could argue that a lot of the good news is already priced in. Persimmon shares traded for almost 19 times forecast earnings before the markets opened this morning. That doesn’t scream value. To really get going, expectations could be exceeded.

A slight rebound in UK inflation could also keep stocks in check for a while. Indeed, the first of these could force the Bank of England to delay any additional rate cuts for now, which would remove the initial buzz in the property market.

The consolation is that I should receive dividends in the meantime, even if they will be much lower than before after the substantial reduction in 2022. Analysts are predicting the company will have a yield of just under 4%.

Given the above, I’m cheerful to stay invested. Any slight fluctuation over the next few months and I’d be willing to buy more.

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