“Retail is not yet a key factor”: Raoul Pal reacts to controversial Bitcoin ETF data

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“Retail is not yet a key factor”: Raoul Pal reacts to controversial Bitcoin ETF data

U.Today – The cryptocurrency market has been abuzz with speculation about price stagnation, which some attribute to hedge funds taking record low positions in cryptocurrencies via CME futures. However, deeper analysis reveals that a more sophisticated strategy is at play.

Hedge funds therefore appear to be engaging in market-neutral strategies such as carry trades or basis trades, which involve maintaining long positions in the Bitcoin spot ETF while shorting futures contracts. This strategy takes advantage of the convergence of futures and spot prices at the time of contract expiration.

A recent review of the 80 largest holdings in Bitcoin cash ETFs, which are overwhelmingly controlled by hedge funds, supports this narrative. Commenting on the data, financial analyst Raoul Pal emphasized that most ETF flows are led by arbitrageurs, not retail investors.

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Pal noted that the core business of listed hedge funds is overwhelmingly market neutral and focuses on arbitrage opportunities rather than directional risk-taking.

This animated explains why significant inflows into Bitcoin cash ETFs have not sent the coin’s price soaring. Market-neutral strategies used by hedge funds offset potential price spikes by simultaneously shorting futures contracts.

As a result, retail investors, who typically drive the more pronounced market moves, have yet to make a significant impact.

While current ETF inflows have not dramatically increased Bitcoin’s price, the potential for future growth remains significant. The lack of significant retail investment suggests that the market may experience a novel wave of growth when retail investors finally enter the market, providing additional stimulus to BTC’s value.

This article was originally published on U.Today

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