Kenneth Broux and colleagues at Societe Generale note that the price of Brent crude has fallen sharply following the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding and the reopening of prospects for the Strait of Hormuz, with prices down 35% from April highs but still above pre-war levels. They highlight technical support at $82/81, $78 and $75 and maintain their Brent crude forecast at $80 by the end of 2026 as oil flows normalize by January 2027.
Oil reviews after the breakthrough in the US and Iran
“Overnight, Brent crude oil prices fell to USD 82.7/b, which added a mild boost to the bull market for governments as expectations of central bank rate increases on both sides of the Atlantic lowered.”
“Technical levels are around $82/81, $78 and $75.”
“Our view is that there is a 35% probability of SoH reopening by the end of June, normalization of oil flows by January 27, and Brent crude oil at $80 by the end of the year.”
“SG Brent forecasts $80/b by end-2026, based on end-June reopening, oil flows normalize by January 27.”
“The 200-DMA near $78 could be important support.”
(This article was created with the lend a hand of an artificial intelligence tool and has been reviewed by an editor.)
