Solana Treasury’s bet becomes uncertain: The company faces an unrealized loss of $1.13 billion

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Solana is facing selling pressure as the broader market feels the weight of a correction that has tested support levels across the ecosystem. The price is under pressure – and data from Arkham Intelligence has identified a specific institutional transaction that adds a direct supply dimension to the current weakness on one of the most closely watched blockchains in crypto.

Forward Industries – a publicly traded company that builds Solana’s treasury strategy by accumulating SOL as its primary reserve asset in a model that makes direct comparisons to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin approach – deposited 455,784 SOL worth approximately $31.87 million on Coinbase Prime after a month of complete inactivity.

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Forward Industries moves Solana to Coinbase | Source: Arkham

A company that had been building its SOL vault and had no exchange-related activity for an entire month, choosing that particular moment to move nearly $32 million worth of Solana to Coinbase Prime describes a deliberate decision rather than routine portfolio management.

The Arkham data presents the question of whether the deposit represents a preparation for sale, financing arrangements or a strategic repositioning, and the answer has direct implications for Solana’s ability to maintain its current level of support.

Forward Industries suffers huge losses

Arkham’s data shows the full scale of what Forward Industries built – and what the market has done with it since. Since the launch of Solana’s treasury strategy in September 2025, the company has committed approximately $1.59 billion to purchase 6.83 million SOL at an average price of $232.08 per token.

At current prices, this 6.83 million SOL is worth approximately $458.6 million.

The unrealized loss on this position is approximately $1.13 billion, representing a decrease of approximately 71% of the average entry price, putting Forward Industries at a significant disadvantage in what was intended to be a long-term strategic reserve.

The context that makes the Coinbase Prime deposit worrying is the combination of the size of the loss and the previous month of inactivity. A company with $1.13 billion in unrealized losses that sits dormant for a month and then moves $31.87 million worth of SOL bonds to an institutional execution venue during a market sell-off is a company facing questions that the escrow alone cannot answer.

Whether the Prime deposit represents a financial solution to an existing position, a partial liquidation to manage balance sheet pressures, or a strategic decision to reposition is a question the market is currently pricing in based on Solana’s current price action – and the answer will determine whether the $31.87 million deposit is the beginning of a larger supply event or an isolated operational move.

Solana’s collapse accelerates as bears hit February lows

Solana remains under ponderous selling pressure, with the daily chart showing a decisive break below the multi-month consolidation range that remained between around $80 and $90 throughout March, April and most of May. After losing support near the 200-day moving average, sellers quickly regained control and pushed SOL toward the $66 area, its lowest level since February’s capitulation.

Solana sets new lows | Source: SOLUSDT chart on TradingView

Solana setting fresh lows | Source: SOLUSDT chart on TradingView

The technical structure has significantly deteriorated. SOL is currently trading below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with all three averages trending lower. This flattening confirms the downtrend across multiple time frames and suggests that gains are likely to encounter powerful resistance rather than attract sustained buying.

Volume has also increased during the decline, indicating that aggressive participation rather than illiquidity is behind the recent move. The gigantic red candles seen during a breakdown reinforce the idea that sellers remain dominant despite oversold conditions.

From the point of view of price structure, the February low around $63-65 has become the most crucial support zone on the chart. This area previously sparked a powerful rebound and is now the bulls’ last line of defense. A decisive break below could open the door towards the psychological level of $60 and potentially lower.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

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