Bitcoin returns to $100,000 continues to be a popular destination overall market for 2026, but one bearish forecast indicates that this move becomes less realistic as time goes on weakening price action below the $80,000 price level.

This bearish perspective it came from cryptocurrency analyst known as Alex Mason on the social media platform X, who predicted that Bitcoin will not reach the $100,000 price level again this year as its price action is in a controlled trap in an ascending channel.

Bitcoin’s upward channel could have been a trap

Bitcoin’s value in 2026 was under $100,000, and with the calendar now almost halfway through the year, the time frame for a rebound is well over six figures shrinks quickly. Instead, price action over the past two months has been defined by an ascending channel, with Bitcoin making progressively higher highs and higher lows since February’s low of just above $60,000. The upper border acted as resistance on several occasions, while the green lower trendline served as the main support sustaining the recovery.

Same channel though points to A bearish argument. A rising channel may appear bullish on the surface as the price rises, but it can also become a distributive pattern as each upward push loses momentum. According to Mason, Bitcoin’s snail-paced rise in the channel has created false strength, giving retail traders the impression that a break back to $100,000 is still building.

An significant moment that exposed false power there was a transition to CME gap of $82,000. Bitcoin reached this CME gap in early May, hit the target, and then was rejected multiple times between May 6 and May 11. It was a textbook trap before taking the next step down.

Bitcoin price chart. Source: @AlexMasonCrypto on X

Chances of Bitcoin Reaching $100,000 in 2026

As shown in the chart above, Bitcoin is moving back to the lower half of the channel, putting pressure on the green support line. If this support is broken, the structure will no longer look like a continuous bounce and the beginning of a descent to a novel low.

The first step to a novel bottom is a breakout from the upward channel. From there, the next goal is around $70,000, followed by a deeper goal go to novel lows for $60,000. The chart even deepens the bear path by moving in a dotted projection up to $50,000 at the beginning of July.

A rally to $100,000 would require confidence, liquidity and a robust break above the $82,000 resistance. Bitcoin will also need to regain the 200-day MA at the same level. According to Kalshi market forecasts, is only the probability that Bitcoin’s price will exceed $100,000 again before January 2027 is 32%.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView