AUD/USD is trading in a tight range on Tuesday even as the US dollar (USD) strengthens amid fading hopes for a quick resolution to the Middle East war after US forces launched modern attacks in southern Iran, overshadowing ongoing diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran. At the time of writing, the pair was trading at around 0.7162, down 0.14% on the day.
The subdued price action comes as investors refrain from making aggressive bets ahead of the release of Australian inflation data on Wednesday. Rising energy prices amid persistent concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East continue to raise the risk of rising inflation after Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 4.6% y/y in March.
Economists expect annual inflation in Australia to fall slightly to 4.4% in April, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which is closely monitoring the trimmed average CPI, is expected to rise to 3.4% y/y from 3.3% in March.
A stronger-than-expected inflation reading may reinforce expectations that the RBA may maintain its tightening stance for longer, potentially supporting the Australian dollar (AUD).
In turn, softer inflation data could further reduce near-term expectations of interest rate increases, especially after the Australian labor market began to show signs of cooling. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.5% in April, and employment change fell by 18,600. against expectations of an boost of 17.5 thousand
Technical analysis:
On the daily chart, AUD/USD maintains a constructive bullish bias, holding above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day straightforward moving averages (SMAs) clustered between around 0.7100 and 0.6800.
The relative strength index (RSI) near 51 signals neutral momentum after the recent pullback, while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has dipped just below zero, suggesting the rally may ponderous but is yet to reverse the broader positive pattern.
On the upper side, initial resistance coincides with the horizontal barrier at 0.7200, where the daily close will reopen the path towards fresh highs in the broader uptrend.
On the other hand, immediate support is seen at the 50-day SMA near 0.7100, followed by the 100-day SMA near 0.7035. A deeper decline towards the 200-day SMA at 0.6803 would be necessary to materially challenge the prevailing upside outlook.
(The technical analysis for this story was written with the lend a hand of an AI tool.)
Today’s US dollar price
The table below shows the current percentage change of the United States Dollar (USD) against the major listed currencies. The US dollar was strongest against the New Zealand dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | BOOR | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.16% | 0.45% | 0.29% | 0.10% | 0.11% | 0.65% | 0.41% | |
| EUR | -0.16% | 0.33% | 0.11% | -0.05% | -0.01% | 0.51% | 0.24% | |
| GBP | -0.45% | -0.33% | -0.19% | -0.36% | -0.33% | 0.19% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.29% | -0.11% | 0.19% | -0.18% | -0.14% | 0.36% | 0.13% | |
| BOOR | -0.10% | 0.05% | 0.36% | 0.18% | 0.05% | 0.57% | 0.32% | |
| AUD | -0.11% | 0.01% | 0.33% | 0.14% | -0.05% | 0.52% | 0.27% | |
| NZD | -0.65% | -0.51% | -0.19% | -0.36% | -0.57% | -0.52% | -0.26% | |
| CHF | -0.41% | -0.24% | 0.07% | -0.13% | -0.32% | -0.27% | 0.26% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select the US dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
