TD Securities’ global strategy team expects a moderate rebound in the Canadian labor market, forecasting only 10,000 jobs. recent jobs in March and an unemployment rate of 6.8%. The bank notes that heightened uncertainty and faint hiring intentions are expected to limit the economic recovery from February’s gigantic job losses, while wage growth for lasting workers is expected to raise to 4.3% y/y.
A slight rebound in the Canadian labor market is forecast
“We expect a moderate rebound in CAD employment, with just 10,000 jobs created in March, as greater growth in labor supply pushes the unemployment rate up by 0.1 percentage points to 6.8% (market: +15,000, 6.8%, respectively).”
“A moderate rebound would typically mean a larger rebound after the 84,000 job losses in February, but the combination of increased uncertainty and subdued hiring intentions should weigh on the economic recovery.”
“Weakness in February was also broad-based, with none of the large one-off declines that were expected to occur in March. We expect job creation to be moderate in both goods and services, while wage growth for permanent workers is expected to see a modest increase of 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% y/y.”
(This article was created with the lend a hand of an artificial intelligence tool and has been reviewed by an editor.)
