Bitcoin (BTC) trading in the range of $60,000 to $73,000 is impressive, especially considering the macroeconomic backdrop of Brent crude oil rising to levels not seen since 2008, a heated war between the US, Israel and Iran, and a volatile stock market where the S&P 500 index is trading with a loss of 3.95% year-to-date.
Despite these escalating issues, Bitcoin buyers have shown continued buying appetite, with the price falling to $60,000, and while that level currently holds as support, the risk of lower prices is not zero.
Bitcoin’s single-day chart shows a bearish continuation pattern, with one confirmed on January 20 as the BTC price entered a correction to $60,014, and a second bear flag is currently in play. Since February 8, any price escalate relative to the overall flag trendline has been rejected, with technical analysis highlighting the importance of a rally and a multi-day candle closing above $76,000 to negate the pattern.
Ideally, the rally to $76,000 would hold for 2-3 days in a row of candle closes, followed by a retest of the $75,000 trendline to confirm a support reversal from resistance, where the previous resistance level is now confirmed as support.
An analysis by certified market technician Aksel Kibar predicts a potential price drop to $52,500. Analysis referring to March 18, Kibar he said this,
“A break through the lower boundary will signal a possible move towards $52,500.”
Related: Bitcoin traders predict short-term declines even if the BTC price reaches 68,000. dollars
Data from Velo highlights relatively flat demand in the Bitcoin spot and futures markets. While investors seem to view instances where the BTC funding rate turns negative as a buying opportunity, their confidence is largely absent during rallies towards the bear flag trendline resistance.
This is evidenced by the total value of open Bitcoin positions remaining below $20 billion, a level not seen since February 2, when the BTC price was close to $79,000.
In terms of Kibara’s $52,500 price forecast and its alignment with Bitcoin futures markets, Hyblock liquidation heatmap data shows a gigantic number of leveraged long positions at risk of liquidation if BTC falls to the $63,000 to $65,000 range.
There is a liquidity gap below and the next block of long open margin positions starts in the $57,500 to $56,000 range.
The current price action generally reflects a market that is trading sideways and consolidating as investors look for capital flow or narrative factors that would push them into larger directional bets.
Until such a catalyst emerges, it is likely that Bitcoin will continue to trade in the $10,000 range, with $60,000 being the lowest key support and $70,000 being the most challenging resistance level.
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