As of this writing, USD/JPY is trading around 158.70 on Friday, up 0.61% on the day, marking a clear rebound from Thursday’s edged decline. The move comes as the US dollar (USD) regains traction after a period of volatility and markets reassess the outlook for US monetary policy.
Support for the dollar comes from expectations of a longer break from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The central bank kept interest rates in a range of 3.50-3.75% and highlighted heightened uncertainty related to geopolitical tensions, although fewer policymakers currently expect rate cuts this year. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets largely expect interest rates to remain unchanged through the end of the year, which will strengthen the U.S. dollar (USD).
In this context, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is bouncing towards the 99.50 area, reflecting renewed demand for the US currency. BBH analysts note that stress from the energy shock and tensions in the Middle East are supporting the US dollar, driven by increased demand for liquidity during periods of financial stress. MUFG shares this view, arguing that a rise in oil prices could further boost US dollar gains.
On the Japanese side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained a hawkish stance, helping to limit downward pressure on the Japanese yen (JPY). Governor Kazuo Ueda said an interest rate escalate is still possible if the economic slowdown related to tensions in the Middle East proves ephemeral. However, the central bank warned against uncertainty regarding economic growth, especially due to rising energy costs.
Meanwhile, the geopolitical context remains a key factor. Escalating tensions involving the United States (US), Israel and Iran continue to fuel risk aversion, which tends to support the yen as a unthreatening haven asset. However, in the near term, monetary policy divergence and US dollar resilience will dominate the pair’s direction.
Today’s US dollar price
The table below shows the current percentage change of the United States Dollar (USD) against the major listed currencies. The US dollar was strongest against the Japanese yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | BOOR | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.15% | 0.33% | 0.60% | -0.21% | 0.13% | 0.10% | -0.28% | |
| EUR | -0.15% | 0.17% | 0.46% | -0.36% | -0.02% | -0.06% | -0.43% | |
| GBP | -0.33% | -0.17% | 0.30% | -0.51% | -0.19% | -0.23% | -0.60% | |
| JPY | -0.60% | -0.46% | -0.30% | -0.81% | -0.48% | -0.51% | -0.87% | |
| BOOR | 0.21% | 0.36% | 0.51% | 0.81% | 0.34% | 0.31% | -0.07% | |
| AUD | -0.13% | 0.02% | 0.19% | 0.48% | -0.34% | -0.04% | -0.41% | |
| NZD | -0.10% | 0.06% | 0.23% | 0.51% | -0.31% | 0.04% | -0.37% | |
| CHF | 0.28% | 0.43% | 0.60% | 0.87% | 0.07% | 0.41% | 0.37% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select the US dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
