EUR/USD is changing course and rising by over 1.16% after the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged, with a leaked source revealing that policymakers are ready to discuss interest rate increases as early as April. In the United States, the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates steady, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell adopted a neutral to hawkish tone at a press conference.
The euro is rebounding sharply following hawkish ECB whispers and broad-based US dollar weakness
The pair is trading at 1.1582 after rebounding from daily lows near 1.1440. According to three sources who spoke to Reuters, the broad weakening of the US dollar and policymakers’ concerns about the conflict in the Middle East may prompt discussions about an interest rate augment as early as April.
The import-intensive nature of the euro zone worries ECB policymakers in the face of a keen augment in oil and natural gas prices, which puts upward pressure on energy prices. As a result, the ECB kept the deposit rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, all three rates unchanged.
In their monetary policy statement, they acknowledge that “the war in the Middle East… will have a significant impact on short-term inflation through higher energy prices.” They added that “its medium-term consequences will depend both on the intensity and duration of the conflict and on how energy prices affect consumer prices and the economy.”
At a press conference, ECB President Lagarde commented that the eurozone was resilient and low inflation meant policy was “well-prepared” to face “coming external shocks”. She added that the central bank is taking a “meeting by meeting” approach and stressed that it relies on data when deciding on the interest rate path.
In the US, jobless claims in the week ending March 14 did not strengthen the dollar, which fell by more than 1% to 99.21 according to the US dollar index (DXY). The number of unemployed decreased from 213,000. to 205 thousand, below economists’ forecasts assuming an augment of 215 thousand.
Other data showed that novel home sales in January fell -17.6% m/m, after a -1.7% decline in December, mainly due to snowstorms that caused a decline.
In this situation, US Treasury yields are falling along the curve after rising sharply following the release of US data. Nevertheless, money markets do not expect the Fed to cut interest rates throughout 2026, according to Prime Market Terminal.
Later this week, the euro zone report will include data on the euro zone current account, trade balance and producer price index (PPI) in Germany. There is no timetable in the US, but geopolitical developments involving the US will determine the fate of the US dollar.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD rate is 1.1585. The short-term bias is slightly bearish as price remains just below the clustered straightforward moving averages around 1.1730, keeping the spot position below the medium-term equilibrium zone. The recent break below the downtrend resistance line at 1.2086 did not translate into a sustained rally, instead exposing the pair to renewed selling pressure below the previous low. The RSI at 45.65 remains below the 50 midline, confirming faint momentum and favoring further declines, while advances are stuck below the moving average area.
Initial resistance appears at 1.1636, where recent retracement attempts have failed, followed by a moving average band near 1.1730 guarding a stronger barrier at 1.1820. To negate the current bearish tone and open the way towards 1.1900, a daily close above the latter area would be necessary. On the other hand, immediate support is located at 1.1567, ahead of 1.1512, with a break down revealing the 1.1417 area. A move towards 1.1417 would confirm an extension of the downtrend and shift attention towards deeper support below 1.1400.
(The technical analysis for this story was written with the facilitate of an AI tool.)
Price in euros this week
The table below shows the percentage change of the euro (EUR) against the major currencies traded this week. The euro was strongest against the Canadian dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | BOOR | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -1.39% | -1.39% | -1.15% | 0.13% | -1.31% | -1.39% | -0.24% | |
| EUR | 1.39% | 0.02% | 0.16% | 1.54% | 0.09% | -0.00% | 1.17% | |
| GBP | 1.39% | -0.02% | 0.30% | 1.51% | 0.08% | -0.02% | 1.20% | |
| JPY | 1.15% | -0.16% | -0.30% | 1.31% | -0.16% | -0.22% | 0.93% | |
| BOOR | -0.13% | -1.54% | -1.51% | -1.31% | -1.47% | -1.50% | -0.36% | |
| AUD | 1.31% | -0.09% | -0.08% | 0.16% | 1.47% | -0.10% | 1.08% | |
| NZD | 1.39% | 0.00% | 0.02% | 0.22% | 1.50% | 0.10% | 1.14% | |
| CHF | 0.24% | -1.17% | -1.20% | -0.93% | 0.36% | -1.08% | -1.14% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
