Six Polymarket traders made about $1 million after correctly betting that the United States would strike Iran before the end of February, sparking suspicions of insider trading.
All six wallets were created in February and placed almost all of their activity on contracts that anticipate the timing of a potential U.S. attack, Bloomberg reportedciting data provided by the analytical company Bubblemaps SA. In several cases, shares were purchased just hours before the first reports of explosions in Tehran, and some contracts were purchased for around $0.10, according to the report.
The moment caught the attention of onchain researchers, who said the pattern resembled behavior previously linked to suspected insider activity in prediction markets.
“In matters related to war or conflict, information may circulate more widely before it is made public,” Nicolas Vaiman, Bubblemaps’ chief executive, reportedly said. “Coupled with the fact that Polymarket typically only needs a wallet to trade, which allows for a high level of anonymity, this could provide an incentive for informed participants to act early,” he added.
Cointelegraph reached out to Polymarket for comment but did not receive a response via publication
Related: Polymarket user gains 400 thousand. dollars in the investigation of ZachXBT
Polymarket strike bets in Iran bring in $529 million in volume
In the last escalation, over $529 million flowed in contracts related to the Polymarket strike. The specific February 28 contract alone attracted approximately $90 million in trading volume, making it the most popular strike date among traders. The January 31 scenario was approximately $42 million.
It’s worth noting that one of the flagged accounts had already lost money on a prior forecast before placing a larger bet that later returned more than $170,000, suggesting that the trades themselves do not prove impropriety. Washington has also been publicly warning about possible military action for weeks, drawing speculators to the platform.
There have been more insider trading allegations at Polymarket. This week, a diminutive group of cryptocurrency wallets made more than $1.2 million in bets on a contract related to the onchain investigation into DeFi platform Axiom, shortly before investigator ZachXBT published claims that an Axiom employee and associates had engaged in insider trading since early 2025.
Last month, the Polymarket account earned approximately $400,000 by placing a well-timed bet on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Shortly before the news became public, the wallet donated approximately $32,000 to remove Maduro, raising concerns about insider trading.
Related: Polymarket users favor Meteora in betting over ZachXBT crypto clearing
American legislator introduces a ban on the utilize of confidential information in forecast markets
As Cointelegraph reported, U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres is preparing legislation called the Public Integrity in Financial Forecast Markets Act of 2026 to restrict insider trading on forecasting platforms. The proposal would prohibit elected officials, political appointees and executive branch employees from entering into trade agreements related to government policy or political performance if they possess nonpublic information.
Meanwhile, Polymarket has faced a wave of regulatory action around the world, with several countries including the Netherlands, Hungary, Belgium, France, Italy, Romania, Poland, Singapore and Portugal blocking or banning the platform after classifying its event-based deals as unlicensed online gambling rather than financial trading.
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