The pound sterling (GBP) fell about 0.10% on Friday as the dollar is supported by a report of high US inflation, which has prompted investors to price in a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed). Increased risk in the Middle East also weighed on the GBP/USD pair, which is at 1.3469 at the time of writing.
Sterling falls as solid US inflation data eases Fed cuts bets and risk sentiment deteriorates
Risk appetite has taken a toll as the hype around artificial intelligence appears to have died down, with the S&P 500 index heading for its worst month since March 2025. In the US, the core producer price index (PPI) beat estimates of 3% in January, rising 3.6% y/y, up from 3.3% in December. The headline PPI fell from 3% to 2.9% y/y, but fell miniature of forecasts for a more pronounced decline to 2.6%.
Even though inflation has increased – due to tariffs, as PPI suggests trade services increased by 2.5%, expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates remain unchanged. According to data from Prime Market Terminal, money markets are forecast to ease by 56 basis points at the end of the year.
Geopolitical risk is growing
Tensions remain high in the Middle East amid growing speculation that the United States has allowed the departure of some embassy staff and families from Israel and Baghdad.
US President Donald Trump said he had not made up his mind on Iran, but stressed he was not satisfied with the way they were negotiating. When asked about the exploit of military force, he replied: “I don’t want to, but sometimes it’s necessary.”
On the other side of the ocean, local elections are putting pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Britain’s left-wing Green Party won in an area of ​​Manchester dominated for almost a century by Starmer’s Labor Party.
So far, sterling has ignored the internal political turmoil around Starmer, tempered by hawkish comments from the Bank of England’s (BoE) chief economist, Huw Pill. He commented that declines in headline inflation caused by ephemeral factors should not create a false sense of security.
Nevertheless, money markets’ odds of a BoE rate cut in March remain at 84%, with the UK central bank expected to cut rates by 25 basis points.
Next week’s economic calendar for the UK and US
The UK economic report will be clear after David Ramsden’s BoE speech. In the US, the schedule is tight: the release of the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, Fed speeches, retail sales and non-farm wages data.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
On the daily chart, the GBP/USD rate is 1.3470. The price action is between an ascending support trendline from 1.3035 and a descending resistance line from 1.3869, leaving a near-term neutral bias with a slight downward tilt as the pair holds below the latter. A group of elementary moving averages around the 1.3500 capitalization is trying to move higher, indicating that the bullish impulse is fading after mid-month highs near 1.3800. At the same time, the still rising longer averages and intact uptrend line argue against an overt bearish trend, portraying the current trade as a consolidation within a broader uptrend.
Initial resistance lies at the downtrend line and nearby moving averages around 1.3530/1.3560, and a daily close above this band will open the way towards 1.3630 and the 1.3680 zone where previous highs have stalled. On the other hand, immediate support appears near 1.3450, followed by recent lows near 1.3400, with a break there exposing the uptrend line area towards 1.3360. A sustained move below this structural low would negate the broader bullish structure and signal the possibility of a deeper pullback towards 1.3300.
(The technical analysis for this story was written with the lend a hand of an AI tool.)
The price of the pound sterling this month
The table below shows the percentage change in the British Pound (GBP) against the major currencies traded this month. The British pound was strongest against the Japanese yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | BOOR | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 1.27% | 2.48% | 1.90% | 1.03% | -1.00% | 1.32% | 0.40% | |
| EUR | -1.27% | 1.20% | 0.65% | -0.24% | -2.24% | 0.05% | -0.86% | |
| GBP | -2.48% | -1.20% | -0.59% | -1.42% | -3.39% | -1.13% | -2.03% | |
| JPY | -1.90% | -0.65% | 0.59% | -0.85% | -2.85% | -0.58% | -1.48% | |
| BOOR | -1.03% | 0.24% | 1.42% | 0.85% | -2.01% | 0.28% | -0.62% | |
| AUD | 1.00% | 2.24% | 3.39% | 2.85% | 2.01% | 2.34% | 1.42% | |
| NZD | -1.32% | -0.05% | 1.13% | 0.58% | -0.28% | -2.34% | -0.91% | |
| CHF | -0.40% | 0.86% | 2.03% | 1.48% | 0.62% | -1.42% | 0.91% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For example, if you select British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
