According to. Bitcoin (BTC) rewards investors most who hold it for at least three years data shared by André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe.

Key conclusions: :

• Holding BTC for at least three years has historically reduced losses to just 0.70%.

• Bitcoin price forecasts for 2026-2027 are centered around $100,000-150,000 in growth scenarios.

Long-term Bitcoin holders rarely lose

Bitwise’s analysis reviewed Bitcoin’s price history between July 17, 2010 and February 11, 2026 and found that the probability of being in the red drops to just 0.70% when BTC is held for at least three years.

In other words, almost all three-year entry points in Bitcoin’s history have ended in profit. After three years, the risk of loss dropped even further: 0.2% over five years and 0% over ten years.

Traders who held Bitcoin for less than three years were at much greater risk of loss.

For example, daytime shoppers had a 47.1% chance of being underwater. This probability remained elevated at 44.7% at one week, 43.2% at one month, and 24.3% at one year.

Stronger hands already bring 90% profit

The realized price measure also shows declines in holders’ losses over multi-year periods.

On Saturday, Bitcoin’s price fell about 50% from its October 2025 high, settling at around $65,000.

This was well above the three-to-five-year realized price of $34,780, meaning investors who bought and held during that window still had about a 90% gain.

Meanwhile, some traders say Bitcoin’s ongoing price correction could reach $30,000.

Moving to this level would destroy much of the cohort cushion, pushing the three-to-five year period closer to break-even. This would further test whether these holders will start adding to put pressure on selling or remain mute.

Conversely, most traders who bought Bitcoin in the last two years were underwater.

The cost basis for the 6-12 million cohort, entities that hold BTC for up to a year, was approximately $101,250, leaving them with approximately a 35% unrealized loss as of Saturday.

However, the cost basis for the 1-2 year cohort was lower at approximately $78,150, which translated to approximately 15% unrealized loss.

The gap reinforced the same pattern seen in bond holding period data: the longer the holding window, the smaller the declines during corrections.

How high can the price of BTC rise?

The long-term outlook continues to focus on several positive targets for 2026-2027.

For example, global brokerage firm Bernstein maintained the BTC price at $150,000 for 2026, pointing to relatively modest net outflows of around 7% from Bitcoin cash ETFs even though the BTC price has fallen by 50%.

“Bitcoin’s current price action is a pure crisis of confidence,” said Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani.

Meanwhile, Standard Chartered warned of a potential “final surrender” phase that could drag BTC towards $50,000 amid delicate ETF flows and a more challenging macro environment before rising to $100,000 by the end of 2026.

Looking out to 2027, Timothy Peterson’s historical “average return” framework points to $122,000 in early 2027, with a high probability of BTC trading above this value.