Coinbase says Bitcoin’s short-term path could depend on two price zones: around $82,000 up and $60,000 down. In X’s fresh post presenting the “BTC practical handbook”, the exchange argues that the combination of structural support/resistance bands with exposure to gamma options sharpens the trade map in terms of whether BTC is more likely to mark a retracement, breakout or acceleration to the downside.

The basic framework starts with Coinbase’s previously released “true supply and demand levels” heat map, built by aggregating pivot points and volume of the market structure into price bands. In this setup, the densest support cluster is located near $60,000, while the first dense resistance band is around $82,000. Coinbase describes these areas as zones where market interest has already been established and where “significant resting liquidity pools tend to accumulate.”

Why Bitcoin Gamma changes reading

This week’s addition is gamma exposure (GEX), which Coinbase describes as a way to map how options dealers’ margin flows can either absorb volatility or amplify it. The company calls the options market a “hidden liquidity provider” and says GEX helps investors decide whether conditions favor range trades or breakout trades.

Coinbase explains the mechanism in practice: when dealers go long gamma, their hedge is usually based on price movements; when they are miniature gammas, hedging can strengthen the move. “In positive gamma regions, the dominant hedging behavior often looks like a shock absorber because if BTC rises, dealers sell spot (or futures) to stay hedged. If BTC falls, they buy to rebalance. This ‘sell strength/buy weakness’ pattern reduces realized volatility and increases the chances of consolidation and ‘pinning’ around nearby strike clusters.”

It then compares this to the negative gamma regime. “In negative gamma regions, dominant hedging behavior can turn into a trend enhancer. Rising BTC prices force hedgers to buy more, while falling prices force hedgers to sell more. This ‘buy strength/sell weakness’ loop can turn normal pauses into rapid sell-offs and liquidation-style cascades.”

When GEX is overlaid on the pivot map, Coinbase’s conclusion is uncomplicated but significant. “$82,000 remains the first gateway to further gains, while $60,000 appears to be the threshold that must remain to prevent accelerated declines,” the post reads. This ties to a “pronounced negative gamma band” in the $60,000-$70,000 region and “significant positive gamma pockets” around $85,000 and $90,000.

This combination shapes the regime’s expectations. Coinbase says a drop to $60,000 could accelerate as negative gamma could raise selling pressure, while a rally towards $90,000 could be more susceptible to grinding and stalling as gamma hedging dampens momentum.

How Coinbase shapes setups

The scenario analysis in the handbook reflects this asymmetry. Around $82,000 Coinbase views first-touch denial as a credible risk in a supply-dense zone, especially without a clear macro-catalyst. If BTC fails in this case, it means that the mean reversal becomes a higher probability expression and warns that breakout chasers may fall into a trap.

In contrast, a immaculate break above $82,000 is not defined by a miniature rally, but by “acceptance” – regaining the level, holding it, and using it as support. Coinbase argues that this would suggest supply has been absorbed and would raise the chances of a continuation to higher liquidity ranges, while acknowledging that a positive gamma pocket above could raise the risk of a breakdown.

The $60,000 zone is covered even more precisely. Coinbase says it prefers to go long only after a recovery signal if BTC falls into this area, rather than trying to catch the initial move lower, as negative gamma can make the path “abrupt and prone to overshooting.” If the $60,000 collapses and BTC is unable to recover it, Coinbase says the pause could represent another “regime change” in which the decline progresses faster than buyers of discretionary declines expect.

At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $65,026.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com