• The edges of the American dollar on Friday in lean holiday trade, slamming the two -day victorious run.
• Tariff tensions appear when Trump is preparing to send letters imposing unilateral commercial obligations from August 1.
• “One Big Beautiful Bill” of the US President passes the Chamber of Representatives, raising long -term debt concerns.

The American dollar (USD) is facilitated on Friday, drifting lower in the holiday trade and shooting the two -day victorious run. After climbing the stronger than expected of us Non -Farmy payroll Data published on Thursday, Greenback is now profits, because market activity remains muted among the holidays of independence on July 4 in United States.

The American dollar index (DXY), which measures the Greenback performance in relation to the basket of main currencies, trades flat in American commercial hours. At the time of writing the index, it floats near 97.00, withdrawing from the highest level of 97.42, achieved on Thursday after stronger than expected employment data in the USA.

Withdrawal occurs when traders weigh sturdy American employment data in relation to a broader risk, including the protectionist tariffs of US President Donald Trump and increased fiscal fears after adopting his mass tax account.

It is expected that the legislation, approved by the House of Representatives, will significantly expand the budget deficit, fueling investors’ concern due to the long -term stability of public finances in the USA. While the sanguine labor market data initially raised the American dollar, fears of protectionist trade funds and growing debt levels burden sentiments.

US President Trump escalated tariff tensions before July 9. On Thursday, he announced that he would start sending letters to his trading partners on Friday. His intention is, as he said, sending letters “10 or 12” to key trading partners, with subsequent days in the coming days, each presents unilateral tariff rates set into life on August 1. Trump also added, referring to this, “it will be from 60 or 70% of tariffs to 10 and 20% of tariffs”, raising a more aggressive arrears before the number of July 9.

• The fire -fighting “One Big Beautiful Bill” by President Donald Trump cleared the House of Representatives at the end of Thursday on a narrow margin of 218–214, and two republican legislators voted against him. The package of many trillion dollars, which includes deep tax reductions and a piercing enhance in federal expenditure, intensified market fears regarding the long -term US debt trajectory. The act is to be signed by Trump this Friday as part of the Independence Day celebrations.
• “One Big Beautiful Bill” attracted piercing political battle lines in Washington. Republicans recognized their transition as the main economic win and fulfillment of the promises of the US President’s campaign, citing tax reductions, defense expenditure and increased security of borders. On the other hand, the Democrats unanimously opposed the legislation, warning that the unevenness would deepen, the federal deficit and deprived of millions of Americans in the field of healthcare. The guerrilla distance adds a layer of uncertainty to markets, especially when the long -term economic impact of the account becomes an inflammatory point before the election in the middle of the period in 2026.
• Trump’s account makes tax reductions in 2017 and add modern tax breaks, including the lack of federal tax on guidance and deductions for overtime remuneration. It also increases the salt deduction limit to USD 40,000 for five years. On the other hand, the Act contains deep medicaid cuts, which hinders the qualifications of low -income Americans and limits some types of care. Exactly rules for food vouchers, limits the financing of green energy programs and accumulates over $ 46 billion for the security of borders and the enforcement of immigration law. “One Big Beautiful Bill” also raises the US debt ceiling by $ 5 trillion.
• The non -party Congress Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the newly adopted fiscal account will add $ 3.4 trillion a deficit of American in the next ten years. It is expected that the debt index to the national GDP will enhance from 97.8% to over 125% much above the previous CBO forecast of 117.1% issued in January.
• While wider tariff uncertainty persists, China has achieved a “framework agreement” with Washington to reduce mutual tariffs and facilitate the restrictions of some goods, especially those associated with the minerals of scarce lands. This agreement aims to facilitate American companies to obtain critical materials from China and China to gain access to some American technologies. However, the details of this contract are still a bit scarce
• India is moving to take revenge against American car tariffs. Indie formally notified the WTO about the intention of applying retaliatory tariffs to selected American goods in response to the last 25% enhance in duties in Washington on cars and car parts. The transfer, which includes suspension of trade licenses within 30 days, means a modern ignition point in the trade relations of the USA – India, just like both parties were approaching a narrow contract. Messages add the growing global tariff risk surrounding the term President Trump from July 9 and can further burden the American dollar, fueling uncertainty on emerging markets and global supply chains.
• Non -Frm Data (NFP) published on Thursday showed that the US economy added 147,000 jobs in June, exceeding the market expectations and lowering the US unemployment rate to 4.1%. While employment in the private sector was slower, the general force of the report led traders to compensate for the expectations of interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve (FED) in July. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the chances of cutting fell from about 24% to just 4.7% after the report. Fed chairman Jerome Powell repeated that the central bank will wait for more signs of cooling both at work and inflation before moving.
• The Secretary of the US Treasury Scott Bessent has tightened his criticism of the FED on Thursday, stating that FOMC is “a bit pushed” in the judgment, maintaining rates, despite what he called “very high real rates”. Bessent added: “If they don’t cut now, the cut in September may be larger.” Despite the hawks of the Fed tone, the Futures contract markets are based on pigeons, the valuation valued 80% of the chance of a 25-union rate (BPS) in September and a total of 50 PB at the end to the end of 2025.

DXY Technical perspectives: The wedge failure persists because the American dollar does not recover 97.00

. American dollar index (DXY) He broke below the decreasing wedge pattern at the beginning of this week. The index tried to recover the sign 97.00 on Thursday after stronger than the expected data of non -farmed wages, but did not persist over it. The bounce stuck in a deadline for broken wedge support, which now turned into resistance. This unsuccessful re -configuration of the bears, because the edges of the DXY lower during the Friday trading session, trading just below the threshold of 97.00.

The price is also below the 20-day movable average, which also serves as the middle Bollinger team, which indicates that the shoot is faint. Unless the Bulls manage a pure breakthrough above this zone near 97.00–97.20, the wider trend of bear will probably remain in place.

The shoot indicators also reflect a cautious tone. The relative force indicator (RSI) floats slightly above 34, remains on the territory of the bear, but shows early signs of stabilization. Meanwhile, the speed of changes (ROC) remains negative, which indicates that sales pressure is still present, although it does not accelerate.

If DXY rushes below his immediate support near 96.30, the lower Bollinger band, he can open the door to fresh moves down, which is aimed at 95.00. On the other hand, a sturdy rapprochement over the wedge can cause a brief -term recovery, but for now the American dollar remains under pressure.