The Japanese yen (JPY) fell for a second straight day against the U.S. dollar (USD), hitting the 162.50 area on Friday, nearing a 40-year low of 162.84 earlier this month. A slightly stronger dollar amid rising tensions in Iran and higher oil prices, which are expected to put pressure on central banks to raise interest rates, proved to be a huge drag on the yen this week.
Safe Haven Greenback shrugged off bearish pressure from lower-than-expected U.S. inflation reports and regained lost ground against most of its peers as concerns about the economic fallout from the Iran war grew.
The war in Iran is back in the spotlight
On Friday, the US and Iran exchanged fire for the sixth day in a row. Iranian authorities have reported attacks on civilian infrastructure in Bandar Abbas, including energy facilities and a railway station, and have threatened to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, another key oil supply route, which could drive up prices and reignite fears of a global economic recession.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump further dampened market sentiment by accusing China of interfering in the 2020 elections, which could threaten the frail trade truce between the world’s leading economies, further hampering global growth.
In Japan, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama again threatened decisive action to support the yen, but the basic scenario became more unfavorable for the yen. Higher oil prices will boost pressure on major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to tighten their monetary policy, while Japanese authorities are likely to scale back the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) tightening plans as they would oppose their growth plans. This will likely maintain a wide gap between the BoJ’s and other central banks’ interest rates, leaving the yen at the mercy of carry traders.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese yen (JPY) is one of the most frequently traded currencies in the world. Its value is largely determined by, among other things, the performance of the Japanese economy, but in particular the policy of the Bank of Japan, the difference between the yields of Japanese and American bonds, and the risk sentiment of investors.
One of the tasks of the Bank of Japan is currency control, so its movements are crucial for the yen. The BOJ has at times intervened directly in currency markets, generally to depress the value of the yen, although it often refrains from doing so due to the political concerns of its major trading partners. The BOJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013–2024 resulted in the depreciation of the yen against other major currencies due to the growing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks. More recently, the gradual withdrawal from this ultra-loose policy has provided some support to the yen.
Over the past decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to widening policy divergences with other central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening spread between US and Japanese 10-year bonds, which supported the US dollar against the Japanese yen. The BoJ’s decision to phase out ultra-loose policy in 2024, combined with interest rate cuts at other major central banks, narrows the gap.
The Japanese yen is often viewed as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money into the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. The turbulent times are likely to strengthen the value of the yen relative to other currencies considered riskier to invest in.
