EUR/USD fell near the 1.1440 area on Thursday, retreating about 0.2%, as the United States dollar (USD) gains support from stronger-than-expected United States (US) labor market data.
US jobless claims for the week ending July 11 fell to 208,000, below expectations of 217,000. and previous 216 thousand Data shows layoffs remain confined, supporting the dollar despite signs of weaker consumer spending.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% m/m in June, which was in line with expectations but slowed compared to May’s 1.0% gain. The Retail Control Group increased by 0.5%, also in line with forecasts but below the previous 0.8%, suggesting that consumption dynamics have weakened.
In the euro zone, investors are waiting for June’s inflation data. The headline Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is expected to remain at 2.4% y/y and 0.2% m/m, while the overall HICP is expected to decline by 0.1% on the month. A softer inflation reading could strengthen expectations for a less restrictive policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) and put additional pressure on the euro.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1436, maintaining a slightly bullish bias as it holds above both the 20-period uncomplicated moving average (SMA) at 1.1428 and the 100-period SMA at 1.1413. Short-term trading is based on clustered SMA support, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of around 50 suggests sustainable momentum following the recent rally earlier in the week, suggesting that declines could continue to attract buying interest as long as the pair holds above the low of the moving average.
On the upper side, initial resistance is located at 1.1447, followed by a narrower band of barriers at 1.1457, 1.1466 and 1.1472, where earlier horizontal lows may have slowed further gains. On the other hand, immediate support is seen at the 20-period SMA at 1.1428, with stronger structural demand emerging at the 100-period SMA near 1.1413; a sustained decline below the latter level would weaken the current constructive tone and reveal deeper consolidation.
(The technical analysis for this story was written with the support of an AI tool. Find out more.)
