EUR/USD rose near the 1.1450 area on Wednesday as the US dollar (USD) weakened following lower-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The euro (EUR) is also finding some support after Spain’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) showed inflation remained elevated in June.
Producer inflation in the US surprised downwards. The headline PPI fell 0.3% m/m in June, compared with expectations for an unchanged reading, while the annual rate slowed to 5.5% from 6.0%, below the consensus of 6.2%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% m/m, also missing the forecast of 0.4%, while the annual core measure was 4.7%, below expectations of 5.2%. Softer data reinforced expectations that U.S. inflation pressures may ease, causing the dollar to fall.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh also used a measured tone during his testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. Warsh said the latest inflation data is an “imperfect measure of core inflation” and added that any central bank is joyful when data is heading in the right direction. He also noted that the labor market is in good shape and broadly balanced, although he said inflation still looks “less good,” suggesting the Fed is not ready to declare victory.
On the euro side, the final HICP in Spain remained at 3.6% y/y in June, unchanged compared to May, while the monthly reading increased by 0.6%. The data suggests that inflation in one of the euro zone’s largest economies remains sticky, which could facilitate curb expectations for aggressive easing by the European Central Bank (ECB).
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1451, maintaining a slightly bullish tone as it holds above both the 20-period plain moving average (SMA) at 1.1416 and the 100-period SMA at 1.1408. The pair is testing the nearby pivot at 1.1451 while remaining just below the horizontal resistance barrier at 1.1462, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 59, indicating constructive but not yet overbought momentum.
The downside is that immediate support is on the horizontal axis around 1.1451, followed by further structural lows at 1.1442 and 1.1431 before the 20-period SMA at 1.1416 and 100-period SMA at 1.1408 provide more demand. On the other hand, a break above the resistance at 1.1462 would strengthen the bullish bias and open the way for further gains in the near future.
(The technical analysis for this story was written with the facilitate of an AI tool. Find out more.)
