Aston Martin (LSE:AML) has the same air of cold, glamor and sophistication as British super spy James Bond. But while 007 always finds a way out of danger, the manufacturer of his favorite cars remains in a seemingly never-ending crisis.

Aston Martin’s share price has fallen by 95% in five years, to 36.34p. And unlike one of Bond’s ricocheting bullets, this one FTSE250 the company shows no signs of recovery. It also fell 13% last month.

And yet, incredibly, City analysts are backing the luxury carmaker as it makes a dramatic turnaround. Currently, 11 brokers have ratings for the company. Their consensus is that Aston Martin’s share value will rise by 26% to 46.73p by July next year. One analyst even believes they will rebound by as much as 51% to 55p!

If the city’s 12-month average price target proves correct, an investment in an Aston Martin of £9,999 would turn into 12,589 pounds.

How realistic are these forecasts?

Of course, no stock price forecast is ever set in stone. Relying on the opinions of others when choosing which stocks to buy is never a good idea.

In the case of Aston Martin, I came up with my own ideas on what could boost its stock. These include:

• High demand for high-margin special models (such as Valhalla).
• Stabilization of production rates after a piercing decline in 2025
• Current major shareholders (e.g Mercedes-Benz or Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund) increasing its shares.
• Further restructuring (e.g. staff reduction) to reduce costs.
• Achieve target level of positive free cash flow by the end of 2026.

But my research also showed reason to believe the automaker’s situation could decline even further. Possible dangers include:

• Consumer demand weakens as war in the Middle East continues.
• Worsening tariffs in the US, which affects sales in its largest market.
• Rising costs as inflation pressures augment.
• Growing net debt (it rose again in the first quarter to an uncomfortable amount of $1.46 billion).
• Fresh supply chain disruptions impacting deliveries.

Are Aston Martin shares worth buying?

Recently, there has been some encouraging news from the car manufacturer. Strong sales of special models in the first quarter meant quarterly revenues rose 16% year-on-year to £270.4 million.

This – together with a marked improvement in margins to the mid-30% range – meant underlying operating losses fell by 12% to £56.9m. Aston Martin’s hopes for ‘significant improvement towards break-even” in 2026 gained strength after starting the year powerful

However, we have witnessed several false starts from Aston Martin over the years. I fear this may be another case, given how delicate the luxury car market is and how it may get worse as the US-Iran war continues. Add to that the risk of the company’s stretched balance sheet, and I won’t be investing in this company, at least for now.

That said, it may be worth considering for more risk-tolerant investors looking for a recovery stock. And especially at current prices, Aston Martin shares are trading at a moderate price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.2.

Should you invest £5,000 in Aston Martin Lagonda Global Plc now?

If investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have stock advice, it can pay to listen. After all, Twelfth Magpie’s flagship Share Advisor newsletter, which it has run for almost a decade, provides thousands of paying members with the best share recommendations from across the UK and US markets.

Mark believes there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying right now. Want to see if Aston Martin Lagonda Global Plc made the list?

Royston Wild holds no position in the companies mentioned.